Source: CoreLogic
Property values in Aotearoa New Zealand rose by +0.3% in February, the clearest sign yet that 2024’s ‘mini downturn’ has come to an end and that 2025 will likely see modest growth.
After a cumulative -4.1% decline over March to September last year, the CoreLogic Home Value Index (HVI) recorded modest movements from October to January. This month’s result marks the strongest rise since a +0.5% gain back in January last year.
The median national value now stands at $807,164, which is down -16.9% from the record highs in late 2021 and early 2022, but +17.1% above the pre-COVID figure of $689,353 in March 2020.
“After all, there’s always two sides to the coin when it comes to house prices, and aspiring buyers would no doubt be happier if they were flat or falling.”
“That said, with listings still abundant and debt to income ratio limits set to be a restraint if and when banks’ serviceability test rates fall further, a rampant boom in property values in 2025 seems unlikely.”
Index results for February 2025 – national and main centres
Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland
The general re-emergence of rising property values in February was replicated across almost all of Tamaki Makaurau, with Franklin and Auckland City both recording gains of 0.5%, and North Shore 0.3%. Rodney, Waitakere, and Papakura all had a modest rise of 0.1%, although Manukau edged down by the same figure.
Over a slightly longer three-month horizon, some areas have still seen modest falls (e.g. 0.3% in Waitakere and 0.2% in Manukau), but those figures also seem likely to turn positive again in the near term.
Mr. Davidson commented: “The sentiment on the ground across Auckland has been more positive of late, and February shows this has been translating into the hard data. Elevated stock levels may mean any further near-term growth for property values remains muted, but the soft patch does now seem to be behind us.”
Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington
The wider Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington area also bucked its recent weak trend in February, with Porirua and Wellington City holding steady, and Kapiti Coast, Lower Hutt, and Upper Hutt all increasing.
Wellington City remains 1.1% lower than it was three months ago, but the other areas have broadly stabilised, at +/-0.1% change compared to November.
“Wellington still faces some economic challenges in the near term, given the restraint on public sector expenditure. But housing affordability across the capital is far less stretched than it was 2-3 years ago, which is likely to have played a role in helping bring some buyers back to the table in February.”