Source: NIWA
Seasonal Climate Outlook
New Zealand is likely to experience a blend of typical La Niña climate patterns, along with occasional atypical patterns over the next three months, according to the latest Seasonal Climate Outlook released today (Friday 31 January 2025) by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA).
A La Niña Advisory is in effect, though weak and expected to be short-lived, says NIWA National Climate Centre Principal Scientist Chris Brandolino, with international guidance indicating around a 50% chance for La Niña conditions persisting through the February to April period. “When combined with atypical characteristics including sea surface temperature anomalies, is likely to mean New Zealand will experience La Niña-like patterns with occasional deviation.”
Overall, New Zealand can expect wind from the easterly quarter, ranging from NE to SE flows, along with occasional periods of westerly quarter flows, from SW to NW, for the three-month period, he says. “The north and west of the North Island can expect warmer than average temperatures, with equal chances for near average or above average seasonal air temperatures for most other regions.”
Early February weather is likely to be drier than normal, but over the three months through to the end of April seasonal rainfall is forecast to be near or above normal for most regions. However, northern and eastern North Island may see occasional heavy rain events.
Soil moisture and river flows are expected to be near or below normal in most areas. At the same time, sea surface temperatures are forecast to be above average, with a normal to elevated tropical cyclone risk with the potential for an ex-tropical cyclone to pass near New Zealand.
Attached is the February-April 2025 Seasonal Climate Outlook in pdf and Word formats, along with three supporting infographics showing national rainfall and temperature forecasts.
Please read the ‘Note to Reporters and Editors’ at the end of the outlook to assist your understanding of the content, its creation and the terminology used.