Consumer confidence: renters feeling more confident

Source: ANZ statements

• Consumer confidence eased 0.4pts last week to 82.6pts. The four-week moving average fell 0.1pts to 82.7pts.

• ‘Weekly inflation expectations’ rose 0.1pts to 4.8 per cent, while the four-week moving average fell to 4.9 per cent from 5.0 per cent.

• ‘Current financial conditions’ (over the last year) declined 1.5pts, while ‘future financial conditions’ (next 12 months) dropped 1.0pts.

• ‘Short-term economic confidence’ (next 12 months) eased 0.8pts and ‘medium-term economic confidence’ (next five years) declined 1.4pts.

• The ‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex rose 2.6pts after the previous week’s 6.0pt fall.

ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk said: “ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence was relatively steady last week, falling just 0.4pts. The economic and financial conditions subindices declined, although this was partly offset by a lift in the ‘time to buy a major household item’ measure. Inflation expectations inched up just 0.1pts in the week to 4.8% after falling to a 2.5-year low the week before.

“Since the start of July there has been a steady move higher in ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence amongst renters, and the four-week moving average is at its highest level since March 2023. Confidence amongst renters is once again higher than it is for those paying off a home loan.”

BNZ the first NZ bank to achieve next open banking (open data) milestone

Source: BNZ statements

Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) has taken another critical step toward open banking—better described as open data—becoming the first bank in New Zealand to meet a major milestone set by Payments NZ.

BNZ has implemented the Payments NZ Account Information API v2.1 standards, which when open banking is fully operational, will enable New Zealanders to safely and securely share their financial information with approved providers.

“While it sounds a little dull, API v2.1 is really the engine room of open data. It’s the piece of the tech puzzle that means our customers have full control over what data they share, who they share it with and importantly, it gives them control to stop sharing their data too,” says Karna Luke, BNZ’s Executive of Customer Products and Services.

Payments NZ plays a key role in establishing the open banking system and has set New Zealand’s major banks the task of implementing Account Information API v2.1 standards by November this year. This follows the May 2024 requirement for major banks to support payments via APIs, enabling direct account payments through third-party apps. BNZ achieved this in 2023.

“That we’ve been able to reach this milestone three months ahead of the deadline reflects the commitment that BNZ has made to support the implementation of open banking. Over 250,000 BNZ customers are already benefitting from innovative services made possible through this technology, including services from Xero, Volley, and Blinkpay, all of which connect to BNZ through secure APIs,” says Luke.

What it all means for customers

This secure access to real-time financial data empowers third-party providers and fintechs to provide customers with new, innovative, and highly personalised financial products and services. Potential use cases include:

  • Personalised budgeting tools: Apps that offer tailored budgeting advice based on real-time financial data and spending habits, helping users manage their finances more effectively.
  • Customised savings plans: Solutions that design personalised savings plans and automate transfers based on users’ financial behaviour and goals.
  • Advanced financial insights: Tools that provide detailed analysis of spending patterns and identify new financial opportunities, enhancing users’ understanding of their financial situation.
  • Streamlined loan applications: More efficient loan processes that simplify and speed up approval by leveraging comprehensive account information.
  • Fraud detection and prevention: Facilitating third party apps or services to use real-time account data to identify unusual activity, improving security.

“Being the first bank in New Zealand to deliver this API demonstrates our focus on helping drive the future of open banking in New Zealand,” says Luke.

“We’re excited to see more fintechs and developers join those we’re already working with to leverage this technology to create innovative solutions that will benefit our customers and the country.”

“It’s also important to remember that banking services are just the beginning. The Customer and Product Data Bill currently progressing through Parliament will establish a Consumer Data Right (CDR) in New Zealand, enabling open data sharing across multiple sectors.”

This will further unlock digital innovation, making it possible to do things like instantly and securely verifying your identity online, via the information held about you by your bank, insurer or power company, or finding the best deal across utility or insurance companies and switching easily.

For more information about the Account Information API v2.1 and its capabilities, please visit https://developer.bnz.co.nz/

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Share a story, stop a scam. Conversation key in fight against cybercriminals

Source: ANZ statements

ANZ Head of Customer Protection, Shaq Johnson said: “Scams are a widespread issue and a scourge on the community. At ANZ, and across the banking sector, we continue to invest in prevention and protection measures to help keep our customers safe from cybercrime.”

From October 2023 to June 2024, total ANZ customer scam losses fell by around 49 per cent and the number of scam events decreased by around a third compared with the same period in 2023. In that time, ANZ has prevented more than $100 million of customer funds going to cybercriminals

The bank’s data shows online platforms are the most common source of scams, accounting for almost 45 per cent of customer reports, followed by telephone or sms, and email.

“The measures we’ve implemented are having an impact – but while it’s an encouraging sign, there is more to do, including continued focus on education to inform people about how criminal syndicates are targeting their victims, changing methodology, and what to look out for,” Johnson said.

ANZ continues to invest significantly as part of its fight to help protect customers and the community from scams and other financial crimes, including:

  • Piloting a dedicated team of specialists in our customer protection team who handle calls about fraud and scams.
  • Implementing additional friction and delays to specific payment destinations which we have identified as having a high scam or fraud risk. The destinations are updated on an ongoing basis to reflect the latest data.
  • The introduction of Crypto Protect, a tool which turns off the ability for ANZ Plus customers to make payments to cryptocurrency exchanges used in around half of all scams unless customers choose to override it.
  • Increase personalised warning messages to inform customers when a transaction or activity is considered high risk.
  • Introducing a new Scam Scoring model, that uses AI to complement current security systems and boost our scam detection.
  • Introducing a Mule Detection model to detect mule accounts and restrict the movement of scam proceeds.
  • Enhancing education for customers with increased alerts on our website and digital channels to provide detail on new scam types and red flags.
  • Adding a new scams awareness model to ANZ’s flagship financial education program, MoneyMinded, which equips community professionals with tools and advice to support their clients to identify and protect themselves from scams. The module is available to more than 9,000 accredited coaches in Australia.

ANZ continues to work closely with other banks, industries, government and law enforcement to collectively address scam trends and stay ahead of scammers to protect Australians.

“Criminals used to rob bank branches, but increasingly they scam customers. The landscape has evolved significantly as perpetrators become increasingly sophisticated, with complex scams that will often involve more than one victim.

“Scammers take advantage of the fact that victims feel ashamed and don’t want to talk about their experience, but awareness is a critical defence in the fight against scams. By sharing stories and experiences, we not only raise awareness but also empower the community with the knowledge to recognise and avoid fraudulent schemes,” Johnson said.

APRA to apply additional capital overlay

Source: ANZ statements

ANZ notes APRA’s comments confirming ANZ is financially strong with strong capital and liquidity levels. The impact of the additional operational risk overlay of $250 million is 6 basis points of Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital[1].  

ANZ acknowledges APRA’s concerns and is expediting work already underway to address the issues raised. This includes working with APRA on the scope of an independent culture and control review within its Markets business which has already been initiated and will report to the Board.

Leftovers on the Rise: Australia’s Food Waste Dilemma

Source: ANZ statements

From the farm to the household fridge, food waste remains a major issue across the Australian food supply chain.

According to ANZ’s latest Food For Thought report, Australian households alone discard about 3.1 million tonnes of edible food annually, equivalent to $8 billion.

ANZ Head of Institutional Food, Beverage and Agribusiness, Gerry Karam said: “In Australia we continue to have a significant food waste problem, which affects every stage of the food supply chain, from production and processing to retail and consumption.”

“The issue has far-reaching environmental, economic, and social implications, demanding urgent action and innovative solutions.”

At a farm level, various factors such as overproduction, market fluctuations, harvesting challenges and stringent quality standards lead to substantial losses. It is estimated that over 20 percent of vegetables produced in Australia – equivalent to around one million tonnes annually – never make it to market.

The problem extends beyond farms and into Australian households, where food waste is a pervasive issue, due to causes including over-purchasing, improper storage, and confusion over expiration dates.

“Another example is that Australians throw away nearly 1.3 billion slices of bread each year, which if stacked up, would create a tower over 1,000 kilometres high.”

“According to the UN Food Waste Index Report, Australians waste an average of 102 kilograms of food per person each year, placing the country among the highest food wasters globally”, said Karam.

“Food waste has a wide range of impacts, including environmentally, such as from landfill methane production, economically, through the cost of wasted food, and arguably most importantly socially, when dealing with Australia’s own food insecurity issues,” he said.

“Despite the challenges, there are a range of opportunities to reduce food waste, such as organisations who redistribute surplus food to charities, or through innovations in turning food waste into edible ingredients or renewable energy.”

“Reducing food waste is not just an environmental imperative; it is also an economic opportunity that can drive positive change across the entire food supply chain,” he said.

BNZ and Adminis sign API agreement to streamline foreign exchange in NZ banking first

Source: BNZ statements

In a move to enhance access to foreign exchange markets, Wellington-based fintech Adminis has signed an API agreement with BNZ—the first bank in New Zealand to offer an FX dealing API.

An API, or Application Programming Interface, is a secure tool that allows different software programmes to connect and share information automatically. With this agreement, Adminis customers can access BNZ’s comprehensive foreign exchange services directly from the Adminis platform.

Customers can exchange currencies in real-time and execute transactions almost instantly, lock in future rates to protect against market volatility, and put their funds to work quickly and securely, without delays from manual processing.

The agreement also provides continuous access to international markets, operating 24 hours a day, 5.5 days a week – from the opening of the Wellington market to the close of New York. This means Adminis customers can trade currencies and manage risks even when local markets, such as those in New Zealand, are closed overnight. This access spans major FX markets across the USA, Europe, and Asia.

Adminis CEO, Matan Gan-El, says, “We are excited to work with BNZ to bring this innovative solution to our platform, which supports over $11 billion in funds under administration for our clients. This agreement will enable our clients to streamline their foreign exchange transactions, optimise risk management, and make more informed decisions when investing and rebalancing their portfolios.

“The API integration will not only make it easy to automate foreign exchange transactions based on predefined criteria, but also facilitate locking in exchange rates through Forward Exchange Contracts, improving the speed and accuracy of deal booking while managing currency fluctuation risks.”

BNZ’s General Manager of Markets, Philippa Fourbet, says, “We’re proud to be the first bank in the country to offer an FX dealing API. Since 2018, BNZ has been at the forefront of API development in the banking sector, with more than 250,000 customers already benefitting from innovative products and services unlocked by this technology.

“This collaboration reflects our focus on using the latest technology to deliver tangible benefits for New Zealanders and businesses. We’re thrilled to be making it easier for businesses to manage their FX transactions, saving them valuable time and resources.”

For more information on BNZ’s APIs, please visit BNZ APIs – BNZ.

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Consumer confidence: inflation expectations at 30-month low

Source: ANZ statements

ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk said: “ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence eased 0.9pts last week, driven by a 6.0pt fall in the ‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex. The current financial situation subindex also declined 1.9pts, but it is still up 5.2pts over the past two weeks and 9.6pts compared to the start of July. Despite some volatility in the week-to-week data, it appears the Stage 3 tax cuts are supporting confidence. Notably, inflation expectations fell to 4.7 per cent, their lowest level since January 2022, before inflation picked up materially in Australia.

It’s been a bumpy path down for inflation expectations since the peak of 6.8 per cent in November 2022, and that bumpiness has been evident in other measures like the NAB business survey’s price measures. The NAB measures are now consistent with inflation sitting around 2.5 per cent. We’ll be watching to see if inflation expectations continue to moderate over the coming weeks.”

BNZ simplifies home loan offering, delivering savings for first home buyers and low equity borrowers

Source: BNZ statements

In a move that will make borrowing simpler and more affordable for first home buyers and low equity borrowers, Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) today announced changes to its home loan offerings.

In addition to a raft of home lending interest rate reductions this morning, BNZ is moving to a single set of home loan fixed interest rates, simplifying its previous two-tier structure of Classic and Standard rates. This change removes the previous 0.60% difference in the rates available to borrowers with less than 20% equity.

New borrowers with less than 20% equity will benefit from the lower Standard fixed interest rates, resulting in reduced overall borrowing costs for these customers. Low equity premiums will continue to apply based on individual customers’ equity positions.

BNZ Executive Customer Products and Services Karna Luke says these changes will make a real difference for many New Zealanders.

“The simpler home loan rates mean that all customers will be able to access our best home loan rates, even if they don’t have 20% equity.

For example, a first home buyer borrowing $500,000 with a 15% deposit on a 30-year term would save $78 per fortnight based on the current 1-year fixed rate advertised on the BNZ website*. Over a 1-year fixed term, this amounts to savings of more than $2,000.

“These changes reflect our commitment to growing the long-term financial wellbeing of all New Zealanders,” says Luke.

“By making home loans simpler, we aim to help more Kiwis to achieve their home ownership aspirations.”

The new pricing takes effect from today for new customers and will apply to existing low equity customers when they next refix their home loan.

*1 year interest rate of 6.55% as of 20 August 2024.

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ANZ first major Australian bank to settle cross-border transactions via NPP network

Source: ANZ statements

Executing the first transaction for BNP Paribas on 2 July 2024, ANZ demonstrated its ability to settle the last stage of inward international AUD payments to eligible non-ANZ beneficiaries in near real-time1.

ANZ Managing Director Transaction Banking Lisa Vasic said: “We see this as a game changer, which will help make sending payments simpler and faster for our financial institution customers. It will significantly improve the customer experience by reducing wait times, improving cash flow and increasing operational efficiency.

As the largest Australian dollar clearing bank in Australia, both individuals and businesses stand to benefit from receiving their international payments in near-real time. We’re particularly pleased that the infrastructure was built using in-house capability without relying on third party solutions.”

To execute the transaction, BNP Paribas sent an international payment to ANZ via SWIFT, which ANZ was able to process and clear into the NPP network, allowing the beneficiary to receive this payment in near real time.

BNP Paribas’ Global Head of Cash Management, Payments, Trade Solutions and Factoring, Pierre Fersztand said: “This partnership marks a significant step in BNP Paribas’ strategy to achieve instant and frictionless international payments. By strengthening our relationship with an established local partner, we are leveraging the local instant clearing framework allowing cross-border payments to settle instantly in order to enhance our clients’ experience.

Our approach aligns fully with the G20 roadmap for improving cross-border payments. As we continue to expand, BNP Paribas is actively working to enable additional payment corridors, subject to the capabilities of local clearing systems. This collaboration underscores our commitment to innovation in global transaction banking, ensuring we meet the evolving needs of our clients in an increasingly interconnected world.”

ANZ is focused on supporting multinationals and financial institutions with the movement of money and goods globally. ANZ Institutional retained its position as lead provider of AUD bank-to-bank clearing services globally for the 16th consecutive year, according to the recent FImetrix survey.

1. Subject to those payments meeting certain eligibility requirements including, but not limited to, the payment message being formatted correctly and the receiving bank being enabled to receive international payments via NPP.

The economy in ten pics

Source: BNZ statements

  • RBNZ kickstarts the easing cycle
  • Greenlights a slow ‘n’ steady downtrend
  • Helps the 2025 economic outlook, but near-term growth picture still troubled
  • With labour market to weaken further
  • Housing market in focus

 

View PDF here

 

Chart 1: So it begins

There was nothing in the Reserve Bank’s (RBNZ) announcement to greatly challenge our view of the world. The Official Cash Rate (OCR) was lowered 25bps to 5.25% as we expected. The interest rate brake is still on, just less so than before.

The most important aspect of the meeting in our view was the confirmation that the OCR will move a lot lower over the coming 18 months.

It needs to. Our rough estimate of the ‘real’ (inflation-adjusted) cash rate has increased in recent months, even with this week’s cut. And it’s a long way down for the OCR to the RBNZ’s estimate of the long-run neutral rate around 3%.

Chart 2: Chop

The RBNZ’s updated forecasts were a shadow of their former selves. GDP growth, inflation and OCR forecasts got a chop while unemployment rate expectations were lifted ½% or so to a 5½% peak.

This brings the RBNZ’s view of the economy down to, or even a touch weaker than, where we’ve been seeing things. Importantly, CPI inflation is now seen well inside the 1-3% target range in Q3 (2.3%y/y from 3.0% in May). As of yesterday, we concur.

It means there’s a higher hurdle for incoming data to surprise the RBNZ on the downside. That doesn’t rule out a larger 50bps OCR cut being deployed at some point, but it does lean against the possibility in the short term.

Chart 3: Joining the rate race

Having been something of an outlier for a while, NZ is now back in the policy easing peloton. Most developed markets anticipate sizeable interest rate cuts over the coming 12 months.

Markets price a better than even chance of a 50bp start to the US Federal Reserve’s easing cycle next month which, if delivered, may embolden global rate cut pricing further.

Of those markets covered opposite, implied policy easing to February 2025 is most aggressive for the US (-185bps), NZ (-150bps), and Canada (-130bps), with Australia (-65bps) and Japan (+10bps) at the other end of the field.

Chart 4: US sniffles

Global financial markets have recovered much of their poise following the steep equity market declines of early last week. Sentiment is not what it was though. Investors are suddenly alert to any number of global fragilities.

Most of the ‘blame’ for the wobble has been pinned on cooling tech/AI exuberance and US growth concerns. The outsized reaction last week may reflect the additional, creeping reliance on the US to drive the global expansion this year. The old ‘US catches a cold’ adage is still relevant.

Chart 5: Jobs growth stalled

The number of people employed nudged up 0.4% in the June quarter, according to official figures released last week. We’d pencilled in a small decline. Unemployment still rose to 4.6% as expected.

Q2’s employment kick is unlikely to be repeated this quarter, and it also doesn’t change the broader narrative of jobs growth effectively stalling around mid-2023.

Amongst the sectoral detail, it’s clear that the construction sector has been at the vanguard of the changing employment market.

Chart 6: Relocating for work

The lift in NZ’s unemployment rate in Q2 maintained a ½ percentage point gap to the (4.1%) Aussie equivalent.

It doesn’t sound large, but that gap is the widest since 2013. Not coincidentally, net migration outflows to Australia are also running at the strongest level since 2013. People move to where the jobs are.

Our forecasts imply both trends have got a ways to run. A climb in the NZ unemployment rate to a 5.5% peak in early 2025 against a lower (4.6%) peak in Australia would, on past form, be consistent with an acceleration in net outflows.

Chart 7: Green f(lags)

Wage inflation peaked in NZ about a year ago. We saw another notch in the downtrend last week. The private sector Labour Cost Index eased to 3.6%y/y in June, down from 3.8% the prior quarter and the 4.5% peak.

More of the same easing is expected over the coming 12 months. It’s something that should help drain still-elevated domestic services inflation pressure. So, it’s not that high interest rates have been ineffective on non-tradables inflation, it’s that the impacts take time to turn up. The lags are real!

Chart 8: No retail respite

The trend in NZ retail card spending abruptly turned in early 2023, and it’s been downhill ever since. July’s 0.1%m/m contraction was the 6th consecutive monthly decline. Discretionary categories remain the hardest hit.

The weakness is even more pronounced once buoyant population growth is accounted for. Our estimate of the average monthly spend per (working age) person is 8% below March 2023 levels. It’s a deeper and longer contraction than during the 2008 GFC.

We’re hopeful the downtrend soon stabilises. Tax and interest rate cuts are supports, but falling population growth and job security are not.

Chart 9: Housing market in focus

The release of July REINZ housing market numbers has been shunted out to Tuesday, thus missing the cut for this edition of TEITC.

But, it’s fair to say, housing stats will be watched more closely than usual as folk scour for green shoots in a sector likely to be one of the earlier responders to (recent and expected) falls in retail interest rates. There are stirrings in some of the anecdote and surveys, but we think the prognosis is more stabilisation than acceleration, for now.

In the least, we’d expect a hearty bounce-back in July sales activity following the outsized, Matariki holiday-related, drop in June. That’s what we saw from this week’s Barfoot & Thompson figures covering a share of the Auckland market.

Chart 10: Food for thought

Food prices lifted 0.4%m/m (seasonally adjusted) in July. Prices have been flattish for the past year, but they’re still up 24% on 2020 levels.

As you’d expect, there’s been a fair bit of variation amongst the components over that time. If you’re partial to an omelette and/or yogurt for breakfast you will be feeling the pinch a lot more than some. At least your morning brew is still, relatively speaking, cost effective.

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Disclaimer: This publication has been produced by Bank of New Zealand (BNZ). This publication accurately reflects the personal views of the author about the subject matters discussed, and is based upon sources reasonably believed to be reliable and accurate. The views of the author do not necessarily reflect the views of BNZ. No part of the compensation of the author was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to any specific recommendations or views expressed. The information in this publication is solely for information purposes and is not intended to be financial advice. If you need help, please contact BNZ or your financial adviser. Any statements as to past performance do not represent future performance, and no statements as to future matters are guaranteed to be accurate or reliable. To the maximum extent permissible by law, neither BNZ nor any person involved in this publication accepts any liability for any loss or damage whatsoever which may directly or indirectly result from any, opinion, information, representation or omission, whether negligent or otherwise, contained in this publication.

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