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Source: Department of Conservation

Date:  30 January 2025

“Up until now, we’ve lacked information on the climate change impact on subantarctic islands,” Drew Bingham, DOC Principal Science Advisor says.

“We knew we had to take a deeper look and identify actions needed to ensure the survival of the taonga species that depend on the islands for their survival.”

The study focuses on 11,300-ha Campbell Island, 740km south of Dunedin. Its terrain is steep, rugged and covered in extensive peat. The highest point is 569m.

“Meteorological observations were made over 83 years, which was an excellent base to start with, and gave us confidence in identifying past trends,” Drew says.

“The pattern we’ve observed is a general increase across all climate indicators related to warmer conditions. This is expected to continue into the future.

“Increases in temperatures, rainfall and wind are projected for Campbell Island. Winter rainfall is expected to be particularly heavy, with a warmer atmosphere storing more water vapour and increasing the severity and intensity of downpours.”

Drew says these climate projections have implications for conservation management on Campbell and other subantarctic islands.

“Extensive rainfall events and slips will potentially have the biggest impact on nesting birds. We’d also like to find out more about how sea level rise and storm surges will affect sea lions.

“Increasing the resilience of the subantarctic islands and keeping them pest-free becomes even more important in the face of climate change, especially given the wealth of biodiversity on many of the islands.

“The project to remove pests from Campbell island’s neighbour, Maukahuka/Auckland Island, is a great example, and will boost the climate change resilience of Auckland Island and by extension, the surrounding Southern Ocean.”

Data from the study shows the following trends and records for Campbell Island’s climate:

• An increase in the average daily temperature over the past 83 years.
• A decrease in the number of cold days over the past 83 years.
• An increase in annual rainfall since 1970 (an additional annual rainfall of 79mm per decade).
• The three warmest years and four wettest years on record were after 2011.

Drew says further research is still needed to assess the impact of the projected weather on Campbell Island’s species in more detail.

“This climate report is a good start as we look at ways to help our taonga species on the subantarctic islands adapt to climate change.”

Visit DOC’s website to download the report on the study.

The climate and weather of Campbell Island/Motu Ihupuku: historic observations and projected changes (PDF, 3,100K)

Background information

Campbell Island is part of New Zealand’s subantarctic World Heritage Site. It is the most southerly of the five New Zealand subantarctic groups.

Campbell Island is home to six species of albatross, including black-browed, grey-headed, light-mantled sooty and a small population of Gibson’s wandering albatross. Several critically endangered birds including the Campbell Island teal and Campbell Island snipe are found nowhere else. It has around 128 native vascular plants, which include several endemic herbs and grasses.

The island’s rat-free status was confirmed in 2006, following rat eradications in the early 2000s.

The Maukahuka project aims to eradicate feral pigs, feral cats and mice from Auckland Island so the island’s animals and plants can thrive. Visit DOC’s website for more information: Restoring Auckland Island – the Maukahuka project.

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Source: Department of Conservation

Date:  30 January 2025

The assessment looked at 1145 species of birds, bats, lizards, and frogs, as well as land-based invertebrates and plants, to identify the most vulnerable which can then be prioritised for conservation action to help protect them from climate change impacts.

Of the species assessed, 351 or 31% were classified as highly vulnerable to climate change by the mid-21st century, rising to 746 (65%) by late century.

Anni Brumby, DOC Senior Science Advisor and the report’s lead author, New Zealand is a hotspot for seabirds and known as the world’s seabird capital, which makes the changing climate a global survival issue.

“Seabirds travel internationally, but many depend on New Zealand’s territory for their breeding grounds. When we looked at climate change pressures such as projected sea level rise and warmer temperatures, fifty per cent of seabirds were assessed as highly vulnerable to climate change by mid-century.

“Snares penguin only breeds on one island and may have nowhere to go if climate conditions change drastically.

“Tara iti/fairy tern – New Zealand’s rarest bird – was found to be particularly vulnerable to climate change, as projected higher spring tides and increased storm surges could impact their Northland beach breeding ground and warmer temperatures could put additional stress on adults, chicks and eggs.”

All five New Zealand bat species were assessed as vulnerable by the late 21st century. Bats are already under pressure from predators, habitat loss, and human disturbance, which will only get more extreme as climate change progresses.

Many native plants identified as highly vulnerable in the assessment are already critically endangered and confined to rare ecosystems. Most South Island limestone dependent plants were assessed as highly vulnerable, such as the Castle Hill buttercup.

Pīngao, a taonga coastal plant species, is highly vulnerable to projected increases in coastal flooding and sea surges.

Reptiles and frogs already have small, highly fragmented populations. Climate change is predicted to increase the impact of current pressures, including habitat loss and introduced predators. The most vulnerable lizards include both alpine and coastal species.

Alpine invertebrates, including Paparoa tunnelling wētā, were also found to be vulnerable, as they may get increasingly squeezed out of their habitats with nowhere to go as the climate warms.

Anni says the large number of species assessed as highly vulnerable reflects the specialised habitats and threatened status of many native species due to small population sizes, limited distributions, and low reproductive rates.

“DOC’s ongoing work programme is focused on prioritising species and habitats where we can make the most difference. We know that when pressures are managed through tools such as invasive pest eradication, nature is restored and in turn, species and habitats become more resilient in the face of pressures including climate change.

“We also need innovative solutions such as establishing ‘insurance’ populations of rare species that could become extinct in a single extreme weather event and implementing nature-based solutions to help control climate-related erosion, for example.

“This information isn’t only useful for DOC – we also expect that other agencies, environmental NGOs, iwi, and communities will find this valuable data helpful to take action for nature,” Anni says.

DOC will continue its climate change adaptation research with risk assessments underway, focusing on highly vulnerable species to help identify any immediate action needed to prevent irreversible losses.

View the report

Trait-based climate change vulnerability assessments of terrestrial taxa in Aotearoa New Zealand

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