Category: University of Waikato

Despite countries pouring billions of dollars into “protecting” communities, flood-related disasters are becoming more frequent and are projected to become even more severe as the climate crisis worsens.

In fact, many areas that flooded during recent extreme weather events, from Auckland to Henan in China, were deemed to be relatively safe. This should raise an obvious question: to what extent is our existing approach fit for purpose in a changing climate?

Traditionally, managing flooding has relied heavily on building higher levees or increasing the capacity of drainage systems. But this can be a mixed blessing. While they contain water most of the time, when levees or drains exceed their original design capacity, we experience damaging floods.

These technical solutions have tended to operate on a flawed assumption that future flooding can be reliably predicted based on decades of historical flood data. They also create the “levee effect” – a false sense of security that encourages development in still risk-prone areas.

As climate change brings unpredictable rainfall patterns and higher intensities, these historic design assumptions are falling well short of the realities. And it means there remains a “residual risk”, even when infrastructure improvements have been made or planned for.

Red tape and risk

We can use the analogy of wearing a seat-belt to understand residual risk. The belt will reduce harm in case of an accident, but it does not mean you are entirely protected from injury.

Now imagine road conditions and weather are gradually worsening, and traffic volumes increasing. Some might look at the new risk and decide not to drive, but for those already on the road it is too late.

Most countries are still managing floods just like this: sometimes building higher levees or installing bigger pipes. But development often occurs incrementally, without the strategic investment needed or the room to safely store excess water volumes in urban areas when failure occurs.

Housing development is needed, but too often current (let alone future) flood risk is not adequately considered. Planning controls, or additional infrastructure costs, are routinely referred to as “red tape” that raises costs. As a result, recovery costs are ongoing and residual risk gradually rises.

Weather-related disasters in 2023, including Cyclone Gabrielle in New Zealand and wildfires in the northern hemisphere, have led to a new focus on understanding how residual risk is managed. But whether it is even acknowledged or incorporated in planning policy varies from country to country.

National strategy missing

Our research team from the University of Waikato recently undertook a survey with flood risk practitioners in New Zealand to shed some light on this.

New Zealand has little in the way of national-level guidance on managing flood risk. Despite this, survey responses suggest flood risk professionals are aware of the issue. They agree residual flood risk is increasing, mainly due to climate change and ongoing development in flood-prone areas currently designated as “protected”.

They also agree the current practice of flood risk management needs improving. But there are several barriers, with the lack of a clear national directive on managing flood risk being the most notable in our survey.

Several respondents noted that changing risk management practice is difficult, given the existing institutional framework. This includes the “build more levees” approach to flood planning.

Local governments also vary in their capacity and resources. Many small councils lack quality flood risk information, such as the likely impact of climate change, which is critical for making wise land-use decisions.

As a result, housing and other developments are continuing in risky places. And to keep development costs down, infrastructure is not being systematically upgraded.

Planning for residual risk

We expect the New Zealand experience reflects similar trends elsewhere. Practitioners are aware of the growing threat of residual risk and would like more power to manage it. But there is a lack of urgency and resources to upgrade infrastructure. And there is political pressure to enable more housing and reduce red tape.

If these patterns persist, not only will the impacts from future floods become more frequent and expensive, but the insurance sector will retreat further from offering flood policies.

This will eventually leave central governments as de facto insurers-of-last-resort for flooding events. And they will be picking up an increasingly big bill, as already evidenced by the US$20.5 billion deficit faced by the United States National Flood Insurance Program.

Internationally and in New Zealand, attention is shifting to the need to build “sponge cities” or create more “room for water” in flood risk management. But we argue that acknowledging and managing the growing residual risk from climate change is missing from the debate.

A better-informed approach would see stronger guidelines against ill-advised development in flood-prone areas unless the infrastructure investment reduces that residual risk. Development on floodplains can still happen. But land use and investment must account for an uncertain future and lower the overall risk profile, rather than increase it.

The reality of more frequent flooding demands a multi-faceted response that makes cities, towns and rural areas more resilient – and prepared for inevitable infrastructure failure. Residual risk needs to be central to planning if we are to avoid an endless cycle of mopping up, rebuilding and compensating for financial loss.

Xinyu Fu, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Planning, University of Waikato; Iain White, Professor of Environmental Planning, University of Waikato; Rob Bell, Teaching Fellow, Environmental Planning Programme, University of Waikato, and Silvia Serrao-Neumann, Associate Professor of Environmental Planning, University of Waikato

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

A month after the coup in Niger that toppled the democratically elected civilian government of Mohamed Bazoum, the country’s neighbours are still debating the possibility of military intervention.

The Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) – a coalition of west African countries, which includes Niger – has said it intends to send in a taskforce to topple the military junta led by General Abdourahamane Tchiani, which ousted Bazoum on July 26.

But the plan to intervene is not without controversy. Niger, a landlocked nation, shares borders with Mali, Algeria, Libya, Chad, Benin and Burkina Faso. These countries have expressed solidarity with the military junta and have committed to oppose any potential Ecowas intervention.

France, which occupied Niger from 1890 until independence in 1960, has also considered intervention – it has a small contingent of troops in the country ostensibly to combat jihadi insurgency in the Sahel region – which the junta has given them notice to withdraw. Algeria has also denied France permission to fly over the country.

For now, the situation remains fluid and uncertain. But beneath the surface of daily news headlines is an intricate web of geopolitical competition and strategic agendas that have profound consequences for the Nigerien people.

The recent coup underscores a geopolitical rivalry deeply rooted in colonial and neo-colonial legacies and intensified by some western nations’ drive for the control of Niger’s resources.

Although Niger grapples with extreme poverty, leading to widespread malnutrition and hunger among its citizens, it is the world’s seventh-biggest producer of uranium. This juxtaposition of mineral wealth and societal poverty underscores the irony of a nation abundant in resources yet plagued by profound economic hardships.

First discovered in 1957 at Azelik by a French colonial expedition looking for copper deposits, Uranium now ranks as Niger’s second-largest export in monetary value – surpassed only by gold. The country is a principal supplier of uranium to the European Union (EU) and contributes between 15% and 17% of the uranium fuelling France’s electricity generation.

Meanwhile, the country struggles to produce its own electricity because Nigeria recently terminated its power supply to the nation as a sanction against the military junta, leaving much of the country in darkness.

Western exploitation

Given its abundant natural resources, it seems counterintuitive for Niger to rank among the world’s poorest nations. Yet its economic and political struggles have deep roots in historical foreign interventions, exploitation and resource extraction. This situation has, for decades, been further compounded by misguided and ineffective leadership, often conniving in exploitation by foreign interests.

While some Ecowas members oppose the coup in Niger and have threatened military intervention against the coup leaders, some western countries are manoeuvring to uphold their interests. The Nigerian senate opposes military intervention, with one of its members alleging that Ecowas would merely be doing France and America’s bidding. Senator Orji Uzor Kalu suggested that if there is to be military action, it should be carried out by French and US troops.

Colonial powers and other major geopolitical actors have profoundly influenced Niger’s contemporary situation. France, referred to by the New York Times recently as the “Former Coloniser that Stayed”, has already warned that any attack on its interests in Niger will be met with retaliation. Meanwhile the reported presence of Wagner Group mercenaries in the country, after a request from the coup leaders, is a proxy for Russian interests in Niger.

But following the reported death of Wagner Group boss, Yevgeny Progozhin, after his private jet is understood to have crashed on a trip from St Petersburg to Moscow on August 23, the status of the Wagner Group activities in Niger – and Africa generally – is uncertain. However, their operations may come under the direct control of Russia’s military.

African resources, western interests

Another important resource issue threatened by instability in Niger is the trans-Saharan gas pipeline (TSGP), designed to transport natural gas from Nigeria through Niger and on to Algeria and then to Europe. One of the drivers of this project in the past two years has been the European need to wean itself off Russian gas supplies in light of the war in Ukraine.

Yet again, western resource needs are dictating events in supposedly independent and sovereign African countries.

The dominant narrative in west Africa frequently presents foreign interventions as benevolent efforts to stabilise the Sahel region, in particular, against the threat of jihadi insurgency. Yet a deeper examination uncovers a more intricate reality. As western powers strive to shape political dynamics in Niger – driven not just by a desire for stability but also to preserve their dominance and control over resource allocation – they portray Niger, and by extension, Africa, as mere markets within the global economy. This ignores the potential humanitarian consequences of such interventions for the people of Niger and west Africa in general.

As Niger faces political instability and possible violent conflict, there’s a pressing need to critically evaluate the motives and repercussions of foreign intervention.

Beyond the veneer of the quest for democracy and stability, the various players’ deeper strategic intentions must be scrutinised. This is the key to understanding the multifaceted dynamics in the Sahel region and their broader global implications.

Francis Okpaleke, PhD Candidate, Politics and International Security, University of Waikato and Olumba E. Ezenwa, Doctoral Research Fellow, Conflict, Violence, & Terrorism Research Centre, Royal Holloway University of London

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

In early August, ten fearless University of Waikato PhD researchers faced off in the final of the University’s 3 Minute Thesis (3MT) Doctoral competition. Each took on the challenge of distilling years of research into a 3 minute talk with a single illustrative slide.

But there can be only one, and it was Te Aka Mātuatua School of Science animal behaviour researcher Rebecca Connor who took out the Professor John D. McCraw Memorial Trophy and $1000 cash prize.

Ms Connor gave a lively presentation on her research into the captive management of the famously shy kiwi. In taking on the challenge of a three minute presentation, Ms Connor said:

“I would never turn down the chance to talk about kiwi! I love this amazing bird, and hope through communicating my research in an effective manner I can inspire others to care about this bird as well. I think it’s really important that scientists can communicate their research so non-experts can understand it, and make better informed decisions as a result.”

Ms Connor’s work is focused on the welfare of captive kiwi, this is birds kept in enclosures at zoos or aquariums.

“Animals in captivity simply don’t thrive if we don’t get it right. And even when we’re getting it right, we can always find ways to improve.”

She pointed to the recent example of Paora, a North Island brown kiwi hatched at Miami Zoo. A national furore erupted when New Zealanders saw footage of $40 tourist encounters with him in a brightly lit room. Ms Connor credited the Zoo with their quick action, and their work with Save the Kiwi and the Department of Conservation (DOC) to improve kiwi welfare. DOC has sent out the Kiwi Husbandry Manual to all American zoos holding kiwi.

The plight of Paora has underlined the urgency of her work.

“When it comes to kiwi, our national icon and much loved taonga, there’s a lot that we simply don’t know. My research focuses on trying to fill in some of the knowledge gaps in the DOC manual.”

She also cautions, “While the plight of Paora needed to be addressed, I’d also like to see the same level of outrage and action around what is happening for these unique birds in the wild at home. 14 kiwi have been killed by dogs in the last few months and there’s been little response.”

The first part of Ms Connor’s PhD study was a survey of facilities in New Zealand and around the world, to assess how they looked after their kiwi.

“I found huge variations. For example kiwi were fed anywhere from once, to three times a day; temperature ranged from 12 to 24°; and enclosure size varied between 25 to 500m².”

Ms Connor is now looking at what works best for kiwi, and what environmental and husbandry variables they prefer. She explains, “I’m now measuring the behaviour of kiwi in nocturnal houses. For example exactly where in the enclosure they spend their time as well as their responses to things like lighting and sound levels, feeding frequency, and visitor behaviour.”

Ms Connor said her 3MT win was a surprise, “All of the finalists did such a great job of communicating important research. I feel very fortunate to have been the winner on the night.”

The runner-up was Larissa Kopf, a PhD candidate with the School of Engineering. She also received the People’s Choice Award for her presentation on developing new thermography techniques for assessing large structures like bridges for internal faults.

The 3MT competition has been run through the Te Mata Kairangi School of Graduate Research since 2009. Dean of Graduate Research, Professor Karin Bryan said:

“It celebrates the exciting research happening at Waikato, and importantly it develops research communication skills, while building a candidates’ ability to effectively explain their work to a non-specialist audience.”

On the finals this year, Professor Bryan added, “It was an usually tight competition that left us all guessing until the moment the winner was announced. It was fabulous seeing so many keen students rising to the challenges and giving it a go”.

Ms Connor will represent the University of Waikato at the 2023 Virtual Asia-Pacific 3MT Competition, hosted by the University of Queensland, where she’ll line up with around 600 university representatives from across 59 countries in late September.

The ten University of Waikato 3MT Doctoral finalist presentations can be viewed here.

Earth is warming and the signs of climate change are everywhere. We’ve seen it in the past few weeks as temperatures hit record highs around the world – both in the Northern Hemisphere and the warm Australian winter.

Global warming is caused by humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions, which continue at near-record pace. These emissions are predominantly generated by people in the world’s wealthiest regions.

Our world-first analysis, published today, examines the experience of global warming over the lifetimes of people around the world: young and old, rich and poor. We sought to identify who has perceived warmer temperatures most keenly.

We found middle-aged people in equatorial regions have lived through the most perceptible warming in their lifetimes. But many young people in lower-income countries could experience unrecognisable changes in their local climate later in life, unless the world rapidly tackles climate change.

Measuring the climate change experience

We examined temperature data and population demographics information from around the world.

Key to our analysis was the fact that not all warming is due to human activity. Some of it is caused by natural, year-to-year variations in Earth’s climate.

These natural ups and downs are due to a number of factors. They include variations in the energy Earth receives from the sun, the effects of volcanic eruptions, and transfers of heat between the atmosphere and the ocean.

This variability is stronger in mid-to-high-latitude parts of the world (those further from the equator) than in low-latitude areas (in equatorial regions). That’s because the weather systems further away from the equator draw in hot or cold air from neighbouring areas, but equatorial areas don’t receive cold air at all.

That’s why, for example, the annual average temperature in New York is naturally more variable than in the city of Kinshasa (in the Democratic Republic of Congo).

To account for this, we applied what’s known as the “signal-to-noise ratio” at each location we studied. That allowed us to separate the strength of the climate change “signal” from the “noise” of natural variability.

Making this distinction is important. The less naturally variable the temperature, the clearer the effects of warming. So warming in Kinshasa over the past 50 years has been much more perceptible than in New York.

Our study examined two central questions. First, we wanted to know, for every location in the world, how clearly global warming could be perceived, relative to natural temperature variability.

Second, we wanted to know where this perceived change was most clear over human lifetimes.

So what did we find? As expected, the most perceptible warming is found in tropical regions – those near the equator. This includes developing parts of the world that constitute the Global South – such as Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia.

Household incomes in the Global South are typically lower than in industrialised nations (known as the Global North). We might, then, conclude people in the poorest parts of the world have experienced the most perceptible global warming over their lifetimes. But that’s not always the case.

Why? Because most parts of the Global South have younger populations than wealthier regions. And some people under the age of 20, including in northern India and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, haven’t experienced warming over their lifetimes.

In these places, the lack of recent warming is likely down to a few factors: natural climate variability, and the local cooling effect of particles released into the atmosphere from pollution and changes in land use.

There’s another complication. Some populated regions of the world also experienced slight cooling in the mid-20th century, primarily driven by human-caused aerosol emissions.

So, many people born earlier than the 1950s have experienced less perceptible warming in their local area than those born in the 1960s and 1970s. This may seem counter-intuitive. But a cooling trend in the first few decades of one’s life means the warming experienced over an entire lifespan (from birth until today) is smaller and less detectable.

So what does all this mean? People in equatorial areas born in the 1960s and 1970s – now aged between about 45 and 65 – have experienced more perceptible warming than anyone else on Earth.

Rich countries must act

Our findings are important, for several reasons.

Identifying who has experienced significant global warming in their lives may help explain attitudes to tackling climate change.

Our findings also raise significant issues of fairness and equity.

Humanity will continue to warm the planet until we reach global net-zero emissions. This means many young people in lower-income countries may, later in life, experience a local climate that is unrecognisable to that of their youth.

Of course, warming temperatures are not the only way people experience climate change. Others include sea-level rise, more intense drought and rainfall extremes. We know many of these impacts are felt most acutely by the most vulnerable populations.

Cumulative greenhouse gas emissions are much higher in the Global North, due to economic development. To address this inequality, rich industrialised nations must take a leading role in reducing emissions to net-zero, and helping vulnerable countries adapt to climate change.

Andrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of Melbourne; Ed Hawkins, Professor of Climate Science, University of Reading; Hunter Douglas, PhD Candidate, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington, and Luke Harrington, Senior Lecturer in Climate Change, University of Waikato

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Professor Chris Battershill has discovered new sea sponge species, led environmental recovery research around major ocean oil spills, spearheaded international initiatives for marine drug discovery, and taught hundreds of students, amongst many other achievements.

He now has another feather for his cap – the world-renowned marine scientist has been honoured for his significant contributions to marine science with a prestigious New Zealand Marine Science Society Life Achievement Award.

The University of Waikato Professor and BOPRC Chair of Coastal Science says, “This honour was totally unexpected, I mean totally. I am humbled, to say the least, and yet there is still so much more to achieve, especially as our coasts and oceans are under unprecedented stress.”

Professor Battershill’s biodiscovery work to find new and useful biological compounds for medicines has provided new hope in the fight against many devastating diseases. The work has also brought attention to the urgent need to conserve the very marine biodiversity that is the source of these novel compounds.

He discovered a rare sponge Lissodendoryx, which led to the creation of the late-phase breast cancer drug Halaven®. With funding from the United States National Cancer Institute, he led discovery and supply-side teams that contributed multiple antitumor drug leads and the identification of a protein from a New Zealand species of red algae, Griffithsia. The protein has proved to be a highly effective antiviral for HIV/AIDS and SARS-CoV treatment.

“Being part of an international collective to progress drug leads is an absolute high, as is having one of the sponges named after me by Dame Professor Pat Bergquist (Tedania battershilli), well, that is until I learnt its common name was ‘red slimy’.”

In 2011 Professor Battershill became the public face of the Maritime Response Team responding to the Rena Oil spill off the coast of Tauranga. He coordinated the response and environmental recovery monitoring, notably preventing the large-scale use of dispersants which he knew to be disastrous for marine ecosystems, especially along shorelines. He said of the experience:

“A positive result was the close relationship that developed with Moana a Toi hapu and iwi. It has opened up so many opportunities, including stepping stones for rangatahi into higher education and, importantly, marine science.”

Professor Battershill has worked tirelessly with iwi to understand and support their aspirations around coastal management in the Bay of Plenty.

“Personally, the growth experience from being nurtured by mana whenua in mātauranga Māori has added depth to my understanding of marine systems and how they work; I can only be profoundly grateful.”

Recently, alongside mana whenua, he set up a seawater system and algal culturing facility in Raukokore near East Cape. The centre is working with iwi to generate knowledge and jobs in an often-neglected region and will become an important research hub for the region.

He also currently co-leads the MBIE-funded programme Toka Ākau Toitū Kaitiakitanga – Building a sustainable future for coastal reef ecosystems. The programme has a Mātauranga-Science focus on coastal impacts and sustainable management.

Beyond research, Professor Battershill remains at heart an educator who has had a positive influence on hundreds of students, many who speak of him fondly. He supervises post graduate students and continues to teach at undergraduate level.

He established the  Coastal Marine Research Station in Tauranga, and now, as Director, he continues to shape its evolution. Today the Research Station is host to many postgraduate students from across the world.

Over 50 of the early post graduate students were engaged through the 10-year INTERCOAST programme led by Professor Battershill. The programme was established by the University of Waikato and Bremen University in Germany to create a major centre of marine research excellence in the Bay of Plenty.

With Professor Rocky de Nys in Australia, he led the establishment of the Entrepreneurial University Algal Platform and is a foundation leader of the Tauranga Moana Biosecurity Capital.

University of Waikato Dean of Science, Professor Margaret Barbour, says, “This award is wonderful recognition of the stellar contributions by Professor Battershill to marine science research, teaching, and community engagement over many years.  His development of new courses, teaching in lectures, labs and field courses, and understanding of the values of Mātauranga and science are a model of what a top scientist, teacher and scholar should be. Te Aka Mātuatua – School of Science warmly congratulates Chris on the award.”