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Renowned physicist and data science expert, Professor Frank Krauss, to deliver talk on innovative use of data to tackle world’s most urgent challenges

Source: ESR

Renowned physicist and data science expert, Professor Frank Krauss, to deliver talk on innovative use of data to tackle world’s most urgent challenges – from disease outbreaks to climate change

 During the COVID-19 pandemic, Krauss developed the internationally renowned JUNE model, enabling human behaviour to be factored into simulations with increasing sophistication. This model was used by the World Health Organization and the United Nations to guide decision-making in contexts such as refugee camps.

Now, he is exploring the next generation of data and simulation approaches that are transforming how we can envisage and prepare for emerging threats – with applications from disease outbreaks to the impacts of climate change.

Krauss’s visit is hosted in New Zealand by the Institute of Environmental Science and Research (ESR) through the Vision Awards, to build on the lessons from COVID-19 to ensure New Zealand has the science and surveillance capability it needs.

The seminar, co-hosted by ESR and Victoria University of Wellington, will highlight the critical role of collaboration when tackling complex problems and realising the full potential of data-driven solutions.

As a Professor in the Department of Physics and the Centre for Particle Theory, Professor Krauss’s interdisciplinary approach has made him a leading figure in both physics and data science.

What sets Professor Krauss’s work apart is its real-world impact. The open-source JUNE model garnered attention for its potential to be applied internationally, aiding governments and health organizations in their efforts to combat the pandemic. Intrigued by the dynamics of epidemics, Krauss’s model not only aids in understanding the spread of the virus but also offers insights for strategic interventions. Its adaptation for refugee camps showcased the model’s versatility and its potential to address health challenges in diverse settings.

ESR Chief Data and Analytics Officer Jan Sheppard says Krauss’s insights are valuable as New Zealand builds its capability in using the power of data and highly advanced simulation tools to make a step change in our approach to health surveillance.

“No doubt COVID-19 spurred incredible work in data modelling and scenario planning, and we saw the effectiveness of this in New Zealand. But since then, the technology and tools have advanced enormously, powered by AI and phenomenal data sets. Professor Krauss’s insights are not about our last pandemic, but our next one.”

Event Details:

Title: Data, Models and Reality
Date and Time: Thursday 7 December, 4PM-5:30PM
Location: Government Building Lecture Theatre, Pipitea campus GBLT1, Victoria University

About Professor Frank Krauss

Professor Frank Krauss is a renowned academic currently serving as the Director of the Institute for Data Science at Durham University, and a Professor in the Department of Physics and the Centre for Particle Theory. His academic journey began with undergraduate studies at TH Darmstadt, followed by a PhD at TU Dresden, and several postdoctoral positions. His research focuses on the phenomenology of particle physics, a branch of theoretical physics that bridges the gap between abstract models for the fundamental interaction of matter and experimental phenomena. He has made significant contributions to the field, including the development of the SHERPA Monte Carlo event generator, a simulation tool that describes experimental reality in great detail. Professor Krauss has also been involved in the development of JUNE, an open-source framework for the detailed simulation of epidemics based on social interactions in a virtual population.

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Hotspot Watch 23 November 2023

Source: NIWA – National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

A weekly update describing soil moisture patterns across the country to show where dry to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent. Regions experiencing significant soil moisture deficits are deemed “hotspots”. Persistent hotspot regions have the potential to develop into drought.

Recent rainfall and current soil moisture conditions:

North Island:

  • Substantial rainfall of 40-80 mm was widespread across the central and eastern North Island in the past week, along with Taranaki. Isolated amounts above 100 mm were also observed in these areas.
  • However, much less rainfall occurred in much of Northland, Auckland, Manawatū-Whanganui, and Wellington, where generally less than 20 mm fell.   
  • This resulted in moderate soil moisture increases across large portions of the North Island.
  • The driest soils across the North Island, when compared to normal for this time of the year, are found in Kapiti Coast, while the wettest soils for this time of the year are found along the east coast and in western Bay of Plenty.
  • No hotspots currently exist in the North Island.
  • As of 20 November, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the North Island.

South Island:

  • Rainfall amounts of 75-100 mm were observed in Fiordland in the past week, with 25-40 mm in the rest of the West Coast.
  • Amounts of 15-30 mm occurred from southern Canterbury to Otago, with only 5 mm or less in much of Marlborough, northern and central Canterbury, and lower Southland.
  • This resulted in moderate soil moisture decreases across a majority of the South Island.   
  • The driest soils across the South Island, when compared to normal for this time of the year, are found in much of coastal Southland, while the wettest soils for this time of the year are found in northern Canterbury and Tasman.
  • In the past week a new hotspot formed in parts of coastal Banks Peninsula and Selwyn District.
  • As of 20 November, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the South Island.

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Pictured above: Soil Moisture Anomaly Maps, relative to this time of year. The maps show soil moisture anomalies over the past two weeks.

As of 20 November, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the country. Please note: some hotspots in the text above may not correspond with the NZDI map. This difference exists because the NZDI uses additional dryness indices, including one which integrates the rainfall deficit over the past 60 days. Changes are therefore slower to appear in the NZDI compared to soil moisture anomaly maps that are instantaneously updated.

The week ahead:

North Island:

  • Rain will move across the North Island on Friday (24 November), with areas of heavy rain continuing in Gisborne and parts of Hawke’s Bay on Saturday and Sunday (25-26 November).
  • Early next week will be mostly dry, but scattered showers and thunderstorms may arrive on Wednesday (29 November).
  • A more significant rain event may impact the North Island late next week.
  • Weekly rainfall totals greater than 100 mm may occur in Gisborne and parts of Hawke’s Bay, with 25-50 mm possible in the rest of the east coast and the Central Plateau.
  • However, much less rainfall is forecast from Northland to northern Waikato, where less than 15 mm is expected.
  • Due to the expected rainfall in the next week, parts of the east coast and central North Island will likely see at least small soil moisture increases, but small decreases are favoured in the upper North Island.
  • No hotspots are expected to form in the North Island in the next week.

South Island:

  • Scattered showers will affect much of the east coast on Friday (24 November), with dry conditions along the West Coast.
  • Dry weather is expected during the weekend, followed by isolated showers on Monday (27 November).
  • Showers or rain will again be possible on Tuesday, followed by another day or two of dry weather.
  • Weekly rainfall totals of 30-70 mm are generally expected in the West Coast, with 20-40 mm possible in northern Canterbury, Otago, and Southland.
  • Elsewhere, less than 20 mm of total rainfall are likely.
  • Due to the expected rainfall in the next week, soil moisture levels may decrease slightly in parts of the upper and eastern South Island.
  • The current hotspot along the central Canterbury coast may strengthen slightly in the next week, while Marlborough Sounds may begin to approach hotspot criteria.

Long-term outlook (through late December):

  • The drier (25th percentile) and middle (50th percentile) rainfall scenarios both favour drier or much drier than normal conditions in the upper North Island and lower South Island.
  • The wetness in the eastern North Island is mostly tied to the expected heavy rainfall in the next few days.
  • Even in the wetter (75th percentile) scenario, below normal rainfall is still favoured in parts of the lower South Island.
  • Unusual dryness and drought are not expected in the next 35 days.  

Pictured above: 35-day forecast rainfall anomaly scenarios (Top), and 35-day forecast dryness and drought scenarios (Bottom). These maps are updated daily at https://niwa.co.nz/climate/seasonal-climate-outlook

Background:  

Hotspot Watch: a weekly advisory service for New Zealand media. It provides soil moisture and precipitation measurements around the country to help assess whether extremely dry conditions are imminent. 

Soil moisture deficit:  the amount of water needed to bring the soil moisture content back to field capacity, which is the maximum amount of water the soil can hold.

Soil moisture anomaly:  the difference between the historical normal soil moisture deficit (or surplus) for a given time of year and actual soil moisture deficits.

Definitions: “Extremely” and “severely” dry soils are based on a combination of the current soil moisture status and the difference from normal soil moisture (see soil moisture maps at https://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/nz-drought-monitor/droughtindicatormaps)

Hotspot: A hotspot is declared if soils are “severely drier than normal” which occurs when Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD) is less than -110 mm AND the Soil Moisture Anomaly is less than -20 mm.

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Hotspot Watch 17 November 2023

Source: NIWA – National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

A weekly update describing soil moisture patterns across the country to show where dry to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent. Regions experiencing significant soil moisture deficits are deemed “hotspots”. Persistent hotspot regions have the potential to develop into drought.

Recent rainfall and current soil moisture conditions:

North Island: 

  • Meagre rainfall was widespread across the North Island in the past week, with nearly all locations receiving less than 5 mm. 
  • This resulted in moderate soil moisture decreases across the entire North Island.  
  • The driest soils across the North Island, when compared to normal for this time of the year, are found in western Waikato and Kapiti Coast, while the wettest soils for this time of the year are found in southern Gisborne, northern Hawke’s Bay, and parts of the Far North. 
  • No hotspots currently exist in the North Island.
  • As of 14 November, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the North Island.

South Island:

  • Rainfall amounts of 10 mm or less were widespread across the upper and eastern South Island in the past week.
  • While the upper West Coast received 20-40 mm, the central West Coast received 40-80 mm.
  • In addition, heavy rainfall of 150 mm or more was observed in much of Fiordland.
  • This resulted in moderate soil moisture decreases across the upper and eastern South Island, with small to moderate increases observed in parts of the West Coast and Fiordland.  
  • The driest soils across the South Island, when compared to normal for this time of the year, are found in Marlborough Sounds, while the wettest soils for this time of the year are found in northern Canterbury.
  • No hotspots currently exist in the South Island.
  • As of 14 November, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the South Island.

Pictured above: Soil Moisture Anomaly Maps, relative to this time of year. The maps show soil moisture anomalies over the past two weeks. 

As of 14 November, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the country. Please note: some hotspots in the text above may not correspond with the NZDI map. This difference exists because the NZDI uses additional dryness indices, including one which integrates the rainfall deficit over the past 60 days. Changes are therefore slower to appear in the NZDI compared to soil moisture anomaly maps that are instantaneously updated.

New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) – 14 Nov 2023 [NIWA].

The week ahead:

North Island: 

  • Rain will gradually overspread the North Island on Saturday (18 November), with many areas seeing periods of at least moderate rain and thunderstorms on Sunday (19 November).
  • The east coast will continue to see rain early next week, while areas farther to the west turn drier. 
  • The middle of next week looks drier overall as an area of high pressure moves overhead.
  • Weekly rainfall totals of 40-70 mm will be widespread across much of the North Island, although amounts could be slightly less in Northland and Manawatū-Whanganui. 
  • However, isolated amounts greater than 100 mm may occur along the east coast.
  • Due to the expected rainfall in the next week, most locations will likely see at least small soil moisture increases, while more substantial increases may occur along the east coast.
  • No hotspots are expected to form in the North Island in the next week

South Island: 

  • Generally dry weather is expected through this weekend, although light rain may reach Marlborough Sounds and a handful of light showers are possible on Sunday afternoon (19 Noovember). 
  • High pressure will bring more dry weather for early-to-mid next week.
  • By Thursday and Friday (23-24 November), a weak front may deliver a few more showers. 
  • Weekly rainfall totals of 30-50 mm are generally expected in the West Coast, with 15-30 mm commonplace elsewhere. 
  • Due to the expected rainfall in the next week, soil moisture levels may decrease at least slightly in a majority of the South Island.
  • While no hotspots are expected to form in the next week, conditions may begin to approach hotspot criteria in Marlborough Sounds and the coast of central Canterbury.

Long-term outlook (through mid-December):

  • The drier (25th percentile) and middle (50th percentile) rainfall scenarios both favour drier or much drier than normal conditions across much of the country, especially in the upper North Island and large swaths of the South Island. 
  • Even in the wetter (75th percentile) scenario, below normal rainfall is still favoured in parts of these same areas, although slightly wetter than normal conditions are now signalled in the east of both islands.
  • In the drier rainfall scenario, there is a signal for dry conditions to emerge in pockets of both islands.  

Pictured above: 35-day forecast rainfall anomaly scenarios (Top), and 35-day forecast dryness and drought scenarios (Bottom). These maps are updated daily at https://niwa.co.nz/climate/seasonal-climate-outlook

Background: 

Hotspot Watch: a weekly advisory service for New Zealand media. It provides soil moisture and precipitation measurements around the country to help assess whether extremely dry conditions are imminent.  

Soil moisture deficit: the amount of water needed to bring the soil moisture content back to field capacity, which is the maximum amount of water the soil can hold. 

Soil moisture anomaly: the difference between the historical normal soil moisture deficit (or surplus) for a given time of year and actual soil moisture deficits.

Definitions: “Extremely” and “severely” dry soils are based on a combination of the current soil moisture status and the difference from normal soil moisture (see soil moisture maps at https://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/nz-drought-monitor/droughtindicatormaps)

Hotspot: A hotspot is declared if soils are “severely drier than normal” which occurs when Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD) is less than -110 mm AND the Soil Moisture Anomaly is less than -20 mm. 

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Tackling drug resistance: global crisis requiring local action

Source: ESR

Tackling drug resistance: global crisis requiring local action 

To mark World AMR Awareness Week (18-24 November) ESR clinical microbiologist Dr Juliet Elvy explores Aotearoa’s place in the global landscape of drug resistance, and the role of ESR’s Antibiotic Reference Laboratory in controlling resistant infections. 

Amid countless global challenges, there’s one silently lurking crisis that is threatening the very core of modern medicine – Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR). Referred to by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as one of the top ten global threats facing humanity, AMR poses a grave danger. It’s a phenomenon where microorganisms, often dubbed ‘superbugs’, have developed resistance to most antimicrobials, rendering them ineffective. The root cause? The overuse and misuse of antibiotics.  

The urgency of addressing AMR is akin to the climate crisis, a ticking time bomb. Without effective antimicrobials, routine medical procedures, from surgery to cancer chemotherapy and organ transplantation come with heightened risks due to surgical site infections. However, AMR is not limited to a single sector; it affects humans, animals, plants, food, and the environment, necessitating a unified, multi-sectorial approach, often referred to as the ‘One Health’ approach. 

Hence why the theme for this year’s World AMR Awareness Week (WAAW) is ‘Preventing Antimicrobial Resistance Together’. This global campaign, led by WHO from November 18 to 24, strives to raise awareness about antimicrobial resistance and promote best practices to prevent the spread and development of drug-resistant infections. Emphasizing the fight against resistance, the campaign’s mantra, ‘Antimicrobials: handle with care’, underscores the importance of responsible use.  

In Aotearoa New Zealand, the Institute of Environmental Science and Research (ESR) plays a pivotal role in detecting resistant infections. ESR’s Antibiotic Reference Laboratory provides national surveillance of antimicrobial resistance among human pathogens and the typing of pathogens causing outbreaks. Clinical microbiologists collaborate with ESR’s Antibiotic Reference Laboratory to identify rare and emerging resistant bacteria. Routine monitoring allows us to stay one step ahead of outbreaks, detecting resistant infections, identifying transmission patterns and preventing their spread before it’s too late. ESR aligns its efforts with the WHO’s list of priority pathogens, ensuring the most effective tracking and surveillance.  

Drug resistance knows no borders 

As New Zealand grapples with the AMR crisis, it’s essential to assess our standing. The nation’s use of antibiotics is relatively high on a global scale, comparable to some of the top antibiotic-consuming countries. Surprisingly, our resistance levels remain relatively low. Our small population density and geographical isolation may be contributing factors.  

However, this isn’t something we can take for granted. A recent Vancomycin-resistant Enterococci (VRE) outbreak   in Waikato hospital serves as a wake-up call and stark reminder that we cannot afford complacency. Enterococci are bacteria found in human intestines and the genital tract and can cause infections. While VRE, a bacterium resistant to many antibiotics, is not yet endemic in New Zealand, it is crucial to acknowledge the potential threat and take urgent action.  

Addressing resistant infections 

So, what can we do as a nation to ensure our antimicrobial resistance levels remain low? Ensuring we implement robust surveillance of AMR and antimicrobial usage and have adequate resources to adhere to infection prevention measures, is critical. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a decrease in AMR surveillance data, primarily due to the strain on laboratory resources. Additionally, New Zealand currently lacks ongoing antimicrobial usage reporting, a surveillance tool that is essential for the country to implement.  

Aside from a nationwide effort, there are steps we can take as individuals to prevent the spread of resistant infections. Not using antimicrobials when they are not needed and following the basic principles of infectious disease prevention is crucial to prevent outbreaks, and AMR is no different. Making sure we are up to date on vaccinations is also paramount, as it not only protects against known pathogens but also contributes to overall community immunity. Additionally, we must be vigilant when travelling to high-risk countries, as these pathogens know no borders. Maintaining personal health practices goes hand in hand with the broader efforts to combat AMR. 

In the face of the AMR crisis, New Zealand has a unique opportunity to lead the way with responsible antimicrobial usage and surveillance. It is crucial that as a nation, we collectively recognise the gravity of this issue and take proactive steps to ensure a future where our healthcare system remains effective. By adhering to basic principles of antimicrobial stewardship, infectious disease prevention and implementing consistent infection control practices, we can navigate the path towards a future where AMR poses a significantly lower risk.  

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30th Anniversary of STEC discovery in Aotearoa

Source: ESR

There’s nothing like the start of the barbecue season to bring to mind E. coli.  

But when ESR microbiologist Jackie Wright made the first case report of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in Aotearoa New Zealand in 1993 – along with collaborators Dianne Fraser and Michael Baker – she wasn’t aware just how much she was making history. 

This year ESR is celebrating the thirtieth anniversary of the discovery of Shiga-toxin producing E. coli (STEC) in Aotearoa, and Jackie’s contribution to public health and food safety. 

E coli O157:H7 causes illness in humans by producing powerful Shiga toxin, which can damage the intestinal lining. The E. coli strains that make Shiga toxin are also called Shiga toxin-producing E. coli, or STEC. STEC infection is a significant foodborne disease, and in 2022, the number of cases reported in New Zealand trumped other well-known diseases like salmonellosis and listeriosis.

In her recent seminar presentation “Clinical STEC in Aotearoa New Zealand,” Jackie says that she chose to include E. coli O157:H7 in the research survey “at the last minute,” because of the recent Jack in the Box outbreak caused by this bacterium, which was linked to undercooked mince patties sold by the fast-food chain in the United States.  

Professor Michael Baker, epidemiologist and public health physician at the University of Otago, says of the discovery: “Recognising the presence of E. coli O157 for the first time in Aotearoa New Zealand was a major milestone for enteric disease surveillance in this country. This discovery was a tribute to Jackie’s initiative and high level of laboratory expertise.” 

Jackie herself is more self-effacing about the discovery, saying: “We all know in microbiology, if you look, you find. This isn’t a case of being in the right place when STEC O157 just happened to appear, if someone had looked before, they would have found it.”  

Nevertheless, after this first discovery of STEC O157 in Aotearoa New Zealand, more people started looking for it, which set the wheels in motion for the robust national STEC surveillance we now have. “In the subsequent 30 years, this pathogen has emerged as an important cause of severe enteric infection across the globe. It is also a hazard that requires close control by our meat export sector,” says Michael.  

Jackie herself has remained a constant in this space over the last three decades. While she left ESR in the late 1990s, she continued to work on enteric pathogen detection in the commercial food sector and then moved into human diagnostic microbiology. Then Jackie worked for 12 years in a small community laboratory, before returning to ESR in 2017 to lead the Enteric Reference Laboratory team.  

The STEC surveillance data analysed by ESR’s Enteric Reference Laboratory team is essential to understanding the epidemiology of the pathogen including prevalence, circulating strains, and disease severity. The work is also critical to identifying and investigating outbreaks.  

On the legacy of Jackie’s discovery, Michael says: “Jackie should be very proud of her lasting contribution to protecting public health in Aotearoa New Zealand. It was a pleasure to work with her during my time at ESR.” 

And for all of us, we can appreciate having a better understanding of food safety during this upcoming season of picnics and potlucks.  

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A 3D Printer is helping save New Zealand’s endangered native fish

Source: NIWA – National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

NIWA has developed a Photarium using the latest 3D printing technology to more safely identify and measure fish species that live in our waterways.

According to Statistics NZ, 76 percent of the 51 indigenous freshwater fish species in New Zealand are threatened with extinction or at risk of becoming threatened, so education, data and research are critical to understanding how better to identify, protect and sustainably manage these species.

Photariums are indispensable tools used by photographers, researchers, and educators around the world to safely observe live fish in the field, but they are currently only made in the United States and do not ship to New Zealand.

NIWA Freshwater Ecologist Peter Williams took matters into his own hands. He developed his own Photarium and is producing it easily and affordably using a new industrial grade 3D printer NIWA recently acquired.

“An older 3D printer would have only produced a prototype quality unit and we would have needed a costly specialist manufacturer to make the finished product,” he says.

“NIWA’s new 3D printer is more advanced and allows us to produce a quality product at low cost which means its accessible to those who need it here in Aotearoa.”.

A Photarium is a small plastic rectangular box, with a clear side and built-in ruler. It allows small fish to be studied without being handled or taken out of the water. It also has a hinged flap to block out light and give the fish privacy to reduce stress during transportation.

Williams designed the NIWA Photarium based on his 14 years of field experience and has been able to adapt and modify it for sampling small fish species in New Zealand’s waterways.

“Many of our native species are climbing fish and the top part of the lid can be closed to stop the fish from jumping out. A mesh that’s printed into this hatch cover allows us to top up the water level for better photography,” he says.

“The beauty of the 3D printer is it allows NIWA to produce Photariums on demand and to keep improving our design based on what we discover while using them in the field.”

The NIWA Photarium improves the accuracy of fish identification. It allows collection and release with minimum handling, and without the use of anaesthetics, which if not done properly can lead to mortality in the fish. It enables small and delicate life stages of fish to be accurately observed and photographed without harming the fish.

Given its success in improving the accuracy of fish identification and photography, NIWA has already had over 70 orders for its Photarium from regional councils, rūnanga, DOC, and education groups across the country.

Williams is also showcasing the benefits of the newly available Photariums as part of NIWA’s electric fishing operator course, which he runs nationwide.

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Hotspot Watch 10 November 2023

Source: NIWA – National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

A weekly update describing soil moisture patterns across the country to show where dry to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent. Regions experiencing significant soil moisture deficits are deemed “hotspots”. Persistent hotspot regions have the potential to develop into drought.

Recent rainfall and current soil moisture conditions:

North Island:

  • In the past week, substantial rainfall amounts of 40-100 mm were observed in parts of Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, northern Hawke’s Bay, the Central Plateau, and Taranaki.
  • Across the rest of the North Island, rainfall amounts in the past week were generally 25 mm or less.
  • This resulted in large soil moisture increases across much of the eastern and central North Island where the heaviest rainfall occurred. Elsewhere, soil moisture changes were generally minimal.
  • The driest soils across the North Island, when compared to normal for this time of the year, are found in northern Waikato, while the wettest soils for this time of the year are found in southern Gisborne and northern Hawke’s Bay.
  • No hotspots currently exist in the North Island.
  • As of 7 November, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the North Island.

South Island:

  • Rainfall of 30-60 mm occurred across much of the upper South Island in the past week, along with pockets of central Canterbury and Otago.
  • Most other locations received 15-25 mm.
  • However, western Southland and much of Fiordland received only 5 mm or less in the past week.
  • This resulted in moderate soil moisture increases across much of the upper and eastern South Island, with small decreases observed in parts of Southland and Fiordland.  
  • The driest soils across the South Island, when compared to normal for this time of the year, are found in south western Southland, while the wettest soils for this time of the year are found in northern Canterbury.
  • No hotspots currently exist in the South Island.
  • As of 7 November, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the South Island.

 Pictured above: Soil Moisture Anomaly Maps, relative to this time of year. The maps show soil moisture anomalies over the past two weeks.

As of 7 November, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the country. Please note: some hotspots in the text above may not correspond with the NZDI map. This difference exists because the NZDI uses additional dryness indices, including one which integrates the rainfall deficit over the past 60 days. Changes are therefore slower to appear in the NZDI compared to soil moisture anomaly maps that are instantaneously updated.

The week ahead:

North Island:

  • A large area of high pressure over the North Island will result in generally dry weather through Monday (13 November). During this time only isolated, light showers may occur.
  • On Tuesday and Wednesday (14-15 November), a more organised front may bring moderate rain to the western North Island.
  • Towards the end of next week, another front could deliver more moderate to heavy rainfall.
  • Weekly rainfall totals of 30-60 mm will be favoured across the western half of the North Island, although the east coast may see much less rainfall, generally less than 20 mm.
  • Due to the expected rainfall in the next week, soil moisture levels may increase in the western North Island, while minor decreases may occur in the east.
  • No hotspots are expected to form in the North Island in the next week. 

South Island:

  • Generally dry weather is expected through this weekend, although Fiordland and the lower West Coast will see rain developing on Sunday (12 November).
  • Heavy rain will affect the West Coast on Monday (13 November), with a period of moderate rain on Tuesday night.
  • By late Thursday and Friday, low pressure in the Tasman Sea could deliver another round of heavy rain to the western South Island, and a potential for some moderate rain in the east.
  • Weekly rainfall totals could exceed 150 mm in the central and lower West Coast, with a bit less farther north. Totals of 20-50 mm will be possible from southern Canterbury to Southland.
  • However, eastern Marlborough and northern Canterbury may receive less than 20 mm.
  • Due to the expected rainfall in the next week, soil moisture levels could increase moderately in the western and lower South Island, but minor decreases may occur in eastern Marlborough and northern Canterbury.
  • No hotspots are expected to form in the South Island in the next week.

Long-term outlook (through mid-December):

  • High pressure and less rainfall than normal will become strongly favoured by late November.
  • The drier (25th percentile) and middle (50th percentile) rainfall scenarios both favour drier or much drier than normal conditions across much of the country, especially in the upper North Island and eastern South Island.
  • Even in the wetter (75th percentile) scenario, below normal rainfall is still favoured in parts of these same areas.
  • In the drier rainfall scenario, there is a signal for dry conditions to emerge in pockets of both islands.  

Pictured above: 35-day forecast rainfall anomaly scenarios (Top), and 35-day forecast dryness and drought scenarios (Bottom). These maps are updated daily at https://niwa.co.nz/climate/seasonal-climate-outlook 

Background:

Hotspot Watch: a weekly advisory service for New Zealand media. It provides soil moisture and precipitation measurements around the country to help assess whether extremely dry conditions are imminent. 

Soil moisture deficit:  the amount of water needed to bring the soil moisture content back to field capacity, which is the maximum amount of water the soil can hold.

Soil moisture anomaly:  the difference between the historical normal soil moisture deficit (or surplus) for a given time of year and actual soil moisture deficits.

Definitions: “Extremely” and “severely” dry soils are based on a combination of the current soil moisture status and the difference from normal soil moisture (see soil moisture maps at https://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/nz-drought-monitor/droughtindicatormaps)

Hotspot: A hotspot is declared if soils are “severely drier than normal” which occurs when Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD) is less than -110 mm AND the Soil Moisture Anomaly is less than -20 mm.

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Hotspot Watch 1 November 2023

Source: NIWA – National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

A weekly update describing soil moisture patterns across the country to show where dry to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent. Regions experiencing significant soil moisture deficits are deemed “hotspots”. Persistent hotspot regions have the potential to develop into drought.

Recent rainfall and current soil moisture conditions:

North Island:

  • Moderate to substantial rainfall of 30-60 mm was widespread across the upper half of the North Island in the past week.
  • In addition, amounts of 75-150 mm were observed in parts of eastern Northland, the Coromandel, and East Cape.
  • In the lower North Island, weekly rainfall totals were generally 10-25 mm.
  • This resulted in moderate soil moisture increases in the upper North Island (particularly in Northland), while some small decreases were observed in the lower North Island.
  • The driest soils across the North Island, when compared to normal for this time of the year, are found in interior Hawke’s Bay, while the wettest soils for this time of the year are found in parts of Northland along with southern Hawke’s Bay.
  • No hotspots currently exist in the North Island.
  • As of 29 October, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the North Island.

South Island:

  • Rainfall of 50-100 mm occurred across much of the West Coast in the past week, including Tasman.
  • Parts of Southland and interior Otago received 20-30 mm.
  • However, the rest of the South Island received meagre rainfall of less than 10 mm.
  • This resulted in small to moderate soil moisture decreases across the upper and eastern South Island, with some increases observed in the west and south.  
  • The driest soils across the South Island, when compared to normal for this time of the year, are found in Nelson and Marlborough Sounds, while the wettest soils for this time of the year are found in north-central Canterbury.
  • The previous hotspot located along the border of eastern Marlborough and the Kaikōura District dissipated in the past week, and no hotspots currently exist in the South Island.
  • As of 29 October, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the South Island.

Pictured above: Soil Moisture Anomaly Maps, relative to this time of year. The maps show soil moisture anomalies over the past two weeks.

As of 29 October, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the country. Please note: some hotspots in the text above may not correspond with the NZDI map. This difference exists because the NZDI uses additional dryness indices, including one which integrates the rainfall deficit over the past 60 days. Changes are therefore slower to appear in the NZDI compared to soil moisture anomaly maps that are instantaneously updated.

The week ahead:

North Island:

  • Numerous convective showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the east-central North Island today (1 November), resulting in locally substantial rainfall amounts.
  • After a fairly dry Thursday, moderate to heavy rain will overspread the North Island on Friday (3 November).
  • Scattered showers will occur during the weekend, followed by a better chance for showers to gradually move north across the island during early-to-mid next week (6-8 November).
  • Weekly rainfall totals of 20-40 mm will be widespread across the North Island, but locally higher totals of 40-60 mm will be possible in central and eastern areas.
  • Due to the expected rainfall in the next week, soil moisture levels may increase at least slightly in many areas, especially in east-central regions.
  • No hotspots are expected to form in the North Island in the next week.

South Island:

  • A few scattered showers will be likely on Thursday, followed by more widespread light to moderate rain on Friday (3 November).
  • The lower South Island will see more showers or rain on Saturday, which will then move into the central and upper South Island on Sunday.
  • Early-to-mid next week (6-8 November) will feature generally drier weather with only isolated, light showers.
  • Weekly rainfall totals of 15-30 mm are expected across most of the South Island, with isolated higher totals around 40 mm.
  • Due to the expected rainfall in the next week, soil moisture levels are unlikely to change significantly across the South Island. Minor increases or decreases may occur due to localised rainfall totals.
  • No hotspots are expected to form in the South Island in the next week, although conditions may begin to approach hotspot criteria in parts of eastern Marlborough and coastal central Canterbury.

Long-term outlook (through early December):

  • The wetter than normal anomalies (green) shown in the maps below are partially the result of the moisture from ex-Tropical Cyclone Lola that affected the North Island earlier this week.
  • The drier (25th percentile) and middle (50th percentile) scenarios both favour drier than normal conditions across the South Island and western North Island, with very dry conditions potentially signalled in parts of the South Island.
  • Even in the wetter (75th percentile) scenario, near normal to below normal rainfall is still favoured for these same areas.
  • In the drier rainfall scenario, there is a signal for dry conditions to emerge in parts of the eastern and lower South Island and lower North Island over the next 35 days.  

Pictured above: 35-day forecast rainfall anomaly scenarios (Top), and 35-day forecast dryness and drought scenarios (Bottom). These maps are updated daily at https://niwa.co.nz/climate/seasonal-climate-outlook 

Background: 

Hotspot Watch: a weekly advisory service for New Zealand media. It provides soil moisture and precipitation measurements around the country to help assess whether extremely dry conditions are imminent. 

Soil moisture deficit:  the amount of water needed to bring the soil moisture content back to field capacity, which is the maximum amount of water the soil can hold.

Soil moisture anomaly:  the difference between the historical normal soil moisture deficit (or surplus) for a given time of year and actual soil moisture deficits.

Definitions: “Extremely” and “severely” dry soils are based on a combination of the current soil moisture status and the difference from normal soil moisture (see soil moisture maps at https://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/nz-drought-monitor/droughtindicatormaps)

Hotspot: A hotspot is declared if soils are “severely drier than normal” which occurs when Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD) is less than -110 mm AND the Soil Moisture Anomaly is less than -20 mm.

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Hotspot Watch 26 October 2023

Source: NIWA – National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

A weekly update describing soil moisture patterns across the country to show where dry to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent. Regions experiencing significant soil moisture deficits are deemed “hotspots”. Persistent hotspot regions have the potential to develop into drought.

Recent rainfall and current soil moisture conditions:

North Island:

  • Rainfall of 30-60 mm was observed in eastern Bay of Plenty and small pockets of northern Waikato in the past week.
  • However, a majority of the upper and central North Island saw rainfall totals of 5-25 mm, with 10 mm or less in the lower North Island.
  • This resulted in small to moderate soil moisture changes across a majority of the North Island.
  • The driest soils across the North Island, when compared to normal for this time of the year, are found near East Cape and southwestern Waikato, while the wettest soils for this time of the year are found in the Far North along with southern Gisborne and parts of Hawke’s Bay.
  • No hotspots currently exist in the North Island.
  • As of 24 October, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the North Island.

South Island:

  • Rainfall of 30-70 mm occurred across large portions of the West Coast in the past week, including Tasman.
  • However, the remainder of the South Island only saw light rainfall of 10 mm or less.
  • This resulted in small to moderate soil moisture decreases across a majority of the South Island, although little change was observed in the West Coast.  
  • The driest soils across the South Island, when compared to normal for this time of the year, are found in the Kaikōura District, while the wettest soils for this time of the year are found in north-central Canterbury.
  • In the past week, a new hotspot has formed along the border of eastern Marlborough and the Kaikōura District.
  • As of 24 October, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the South Island.

Pictured above: Soil Moisture Anomaly Maps, relative to this time of year. The maps show soil moisture anomalies over the past two weeks.

As of 24 October, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the country. Please note: some hotspots in the text above may not correspond with the NZDI map. This difference exists because the NZDI uses additional dryness indices, including one which integrates the rainfall deficit over the past 60 days. Changes are therefore slower to appear in the NZDI compared to soil moisture anomaly maps that are instantaneously updated.


The week ahead:

North Island:

  • On Thursday night and Friday (26-27 October) a cold front will move up the North Island, bringing light to moderate rainfall to the western half of the island in particular.
  • High pressure will bring dry weather to the North Island during the weekend, although rain may begin to affect Northland by Sunday afternoon (29 October).
  • Moisture from the remnants of ex-Tropical Cyclone Lola is likely to affect the North Island on Monday and Tuesday, with parts of the upper and eastern North Island likely seeing heavy rain on Monday.
  • By the middle of next week there may be at least a brief drier window.
  • Weekly rainfall totals of 50-100 mm will be possible in the upper half of the North Island, with isolated higher amounts. Farther south, weekly totals of 30-50 mm are expected.
  • Due to the expected rainfall in the next week, soil moisture levels may increase significantly, especially in the northern half of the island.
  • No hotspots are expected to form in the North Island in the next week.

South Island:

  • After a few showers on Friday (27 October), high pressure will bring dry weather to the South Island from Saturday to Monday.
  • By Tuesday (31 October), the remnant moisture from ex-Tropical Cyclone Lola could result in showers or rain in the upper South Island, but rainfall amounts are not expected to be significant at this time.
  • The middle portion of next week may feature scattered showers.
  • Weekly rainfall totals of 20-40 mm are expected along the West Coast, with generally less than 20 mm elsewhere. However, parts of Canterbury may see rainfall totals of less than 10 mm.
  • Due to the expected rainfall in the next week, soil moisture levels are likely to decrease across most regions, with the largest decreases expected in the eastern South Island.
  • The current hotspot located along the border of eastern Marlborough and the Kaikōura District could strengthen and expand at least slightly in the next week, although no additional hotspots are expected to form.

Long-term outlook (through late November):

  • The wetter than normal anomalies (green) shown in the maps below are mostly the result of the remnant moisture from ex-Tropical Cyclone Lola that is expected to affect the upper and eastern North Island in the coming days.
  • The drier (25th percentile) and middle (50th percentile) scenarios both favour drier than normal conditions in the South Island, with very dry conditions potentially signalled in Canterbury and Otago.
  • However, in the wetter (75th percentile) scenario, near normal rainfall is favoured for many of these areas.
  • Particularly in the drier rainfall scenario, there is a signal for dry conditions to emerge in parts of the eastern and lower South Island over the next 35 days.  

Pictured above: 35-day forecast rainfall anomaly scenarios (Top), and 35-day forecast dryness and drought scenarios (Bottom). These maps are updated daily at https://niwa.co.nz/climate/seasonal-climate-outlook 

Background:

Hotspot Watch: a weekly advisory service for New Zealand media. It provides soil moisture and precipitation measurements around the country to help assess whether extremely dry conditions are imminent. 

Soil moisture deficit:  the amount of water needed to bring the soil moisture content back to field capacity, which is the maximum amount of water the soil can hold.

Soil moisture anomaly:  the difference between the historical normal soil moisture deficit (or surplus) for a given time of year and actual soil moisture deficits.

Definitions: “Extremely” and “severely” dry soils are based on a combination of the current soil moisture status and the difference from normal soil moisture (see soil moisture maps at https://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/nz-drought-monitor/droughtindicatormaps)

Hotspot: A hotspot is declared if soils are “severely drier than normal” which occurs when Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD) is less than -110 mm AND the Soil Moisture Anomaly is less than -20 mm.

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Electricity conversion project takes top prize at Auckland Science Fair

Source: NIWA – National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

A suite of projects that ranged from whether toothpaste’s a scam to capturing air, to human superpowers made up the 206 entries at this year’s NIWA Auckland City Science & Technology Fair.

Coming out as the best overall was Diocesan School for Girls student Lauren Chee with her entry MFC-eize the Day. Lauren investigated the effect of changing glucose concentration on the voltage output of a yeast microbial fuel cell (MFC).

Lauren’s interest in redox reactions and electrolytic cells sparked her idea and MFCs crossed into her love for biology.

“I thought this is a really cool overlap between different disciplines,” says Lauren.

“I found that it’s a potential way to generate sustainable electricity. However, one of the issues that’s held back its widespread use is its low voltage output. Hence, I wanted to investigate how a particular factor could improve its viability.”

As well as the project being a success Lauren says for her the other unexpected result was that others found it interesting.

“I didn’t expect it to have as much recognition as it did!”

This is Lauren’s first time entering the Auckland Science Fair.

“I had planned to do it as an experience kind of thing as I’m in year 13 and wanted to try and do as many new activities before I left school,” says Lauren. “So I went in not really expecting much!”

Runner up overall and NIWA Auckland Prize for Best Exhibit in Atmospheric and Water Science was Epsom Girls’ Grammar School student Anushka Dissanayake. Anushka’s project, The Invisible World of Environmental DNA, investigated the impacts that severe weather events had on the correlation between the water quality and biodiversity in Auckland’s streams.

NIWA science fair coordinator and urban aquatic scientist Annette Semadeni-Davies has been part of the Auckland fairs for many years and she commented that the excitement of the kids is always striking.

“The buzz amongst these young scientists constantly amazes me and is wonderful to see”.

NIWA is a key supporter and sponsor of regional Science and Technology Fairs throughout Aotearoa New Zealand and has been for more than two decades. Sponsoring the fairs is part of a long-term NIWA commitment to enhancing science and technology for young New Zealanders.

The fair was hosted by Michael Park School with 20 schools participating from year nine through to year 13. There were 168 prizes awarded with 278 students taking part.

The fair is about encouraging young people towards problem solving and creative discovery. For the Auckland region the NIWA North Harbour Science & Technology air and the NIWA South and East Auckland Science & Technology Fair.

Full results can be found at scifair.org.nz .