Category: NIWA

Source: NIWA – National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

A weekly update describing soil moisture patterns across the country to show where dry to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent. Regions experiencing significant soil moisture deficits are deemed “hotspots”. Persistent hotspot regions have the potential to develop into drought.

Recent rainfall and current soil moisture conditions:

North Island:

• Moderate to substantial rainfall of 30-60 mm was widespread across the upper half of the North Island in the past week.
• In addition, amounts of 75-150 mm were observed in parts of eastern Northland, the Coromandel, and East Cape.
• In the lower North Island, weekly rainfall totals were generally 10-25 mm.
• This resulted in moderate soil moisture increases in the upper North Island (particularly in Northland), while some small decreases were observed in the lower North Island.
• The driest soils across the North Island, when compared to normal for this time of the year, are found in interior Hawke’s Bay, while the wettest soils for this time of the year are found in parts of Northland along with southern Hawke’s Bay.
• No hotspots currently exist in the North Island.
• As of 29 October, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the North Island.

South Island:

• Rainfall of 50-100 mm occurred across much of the West Coast in the past week, including Tasman.
• Parts of Southland and interior Otago received 20-30 mm.
• However, the rest of the South Island received meagre rainfall of less than 10 mm.
• This resulted in small to moderate soil moisture decreases across the upper and eastern South Island, with some increases observed in the west and south.  
• The driest soils across the South Island, when compared to normal for this time of the year, are found in Nelson and Marlborough Sounds, while the wettest soils for this time of the year are found in north-central Canterbury.
• The previous hotspot located along the border of eastern Marlborough and the Kaikōura District dissipated in the past week, and no hotspots currently exist in the South Island.
• As of 29 October, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the South Island.

Pictured above: Soil Moisture Anomaly Maps, relative to this time of year. The maps show soil moisture anomalies over the past two weeks.

As of 29 October, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the country. Please note: some hotspots in the text above may not correspond with the NZDI map. This difference exists because the NZDI uses additional dryness indices, including one which integrates the rainfall deficit over the past 60 days. Changes are therefore slower to appear in the NZDI compared to soil moisture anomaly maps that are instantaneously updated.

The week ahead:

North Island:

• Numerous convective showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the east-central North Island today (1 November), resulting in locally substantial rainfall amounts.
• After a fairly dry Thursday, moderate to heavy rain will overspread the North Island on Friday (3 November).
• Scattered showers will occur during the weekend, followed by a better chance for showers to gradually move north across the island during early-to-mid next week (6-8 November).
• Weekly rainfall totals of 20-40 mm will be widespread across the North Island, but locally higher totals of 40-60 mm will be possible in central and eastern areas.
• Due to the expected rainfall in the next week, soil moisture levels may increase at least slightly in many areas, especially in east-central regions.
• No hotspots are expected to form in the North Island in the next week.

South Island:

• A few scattered showers will be likely on Thursday, followed by more widespread light to moderate rain on Friday (3 November).
• The lower South Island will see more showers or rain on Saturday, which will then move into the central and upper South Island on Sunday.
• Early-to-mid next week (6-8 November) will feature generally drier weather with only isolated, light showers.
• Weekly rainfall totals of 15-30 mm are expected across most of the South Island, with isolated higher totals around 40 mm.
• Due to the expected rainfall in the next week, soil moisture levels are unlikely to change significantly across the South Island. Minor increases or decreases may occur due to localised rainfall totals.
• No hotspots are expected to form in the South Island in the next week, although conditions may begin to approach hotspot criteria in parts of eastern Marlborough and coastal central Canterbury.

Long-term outlook (through early December):

• The wetter than normal anomalies (green) shown in the maps below are partially the result of the moisture from ex-Tropical Cyclone Lola that affected the North Island earlier this week.
• The drier (25^th percentile) and middle (50^th percentile) scenarios both favour drier than normal conditions across the South Island and western North Island, with very dry conditions potentially signalled in parts of the South Island.
• Even in the wetter (75^th percentile) scenario, near normal to below normal rainfall is still favoured for these same areas.
• In the drier rainfall scenario, there is a signal for dry conditions to emerge in parts of the eastern and lower South Island and lower North Island over the next 35 days.  

Pictured above: 35-day forecast rainfall anomaly scenarios (Top), and 35-day forecast dryness and drought scenarios (Bottom). These maps are updated daily at https://niwa.co.nz/climate/seasonal-climate-outlook 

Background: 

Hotspot Watch: a weekly advisory service for New Zealand media. It provides soil moisture and precipitation measurements around the country to help assess whether extremely dry conditions are imminent. 

Soil moisture deficit:  the amount of water needed to bring the soil moisture content back to field capacity, which is the maximum amount of water the soil can hold.

Soil moisture anomaly:  the difference between the historical normal soil moisture deficit (or surplus) for a given time of year and actual soil moisture deficits.

Definitions: “Extremely” and “severely” dry soils are based on a combination of the current soil moisture status and the difference from normal soil moisture (see soil moisture maps at https://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/nz-drought-monitor/droughtindicatormaps)

Hotspot: A hotspot is declared if soils are “severely drier than normal” which occurs when Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD) is less than -110 mm AND the Soil Moisture Anomaly is less than -20 mm.

Source: NIWA – National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

A weekly update describing soil moisture patterns across the country to show where dry to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent. Regions experiencing significant soil moisture deficits are deemed “hotspots”. Persistent hotspot regions have the potential to develop into drought.

Recent rainfall and current soil moisture conditions:

North Island:

• Rainfall of 30-60 mm was observed in eastern Bay of Plenty and small pockets of northern Waikato in the past week.
• However, a majority of the upper and central North Island saw rainfall totals of 5-25 mm, with 10 mm or less in the lower North Island.
• This resulted in small to moderate soil moisture changes across a majority of the North Island.
• The driest soils across the North Island, when compared to normal for this time of the year, are found near East Cape and southwestern Waikato, while the wettest soils for this time of the year are found in the Far North along with southern Gisborne and parts of Hawke’s Bay.
• No hotspots currently exist in the North Island.
• As of 24 October, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the North Island.

South Island:

• Rainfall of 30-70 mm occurred across large portions of the West Coast in the past week, including Tasman.
• However, the remainder of the South Island only saw light rainfall of 10 mm or less.
• This resulted in small to moderate soil moisture decreases across a majority of the South Island, although little change was observed in the West Coast.  
• The driest soils across the South Island, when compared to normal for this time of the year, are found in the Kaikōura District, while the wettest soils for this time of the year are found in north-central Canterbury.
• In the past week, a new hotspot has formed along the border of eastern Marlborough and the Kaikōura District.
• As of 24 October, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the South Island.

Pictured above: Soil Moisture Anomaly Maps, relative to this time of year. The maps show soil moisture anomalies over the past two weeks.

As of 24 October, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the country. Please note: some hotspots in the text above may not correspond with the NZDI map. This difference exists because the NZDI uses additional dryness indices, including one which integrates the rainfall deficit over the past 60 days. Changes are therefore slower to appear in the NZDI compared to soil moisture anomaly maps that are instantaneously updated.

The week ahead:

North Island:

• On Thursday night and Friday (26-27 October) a cold front will move up the North Island, bringing light to moderate rainfall to the western half of the island in particular.
• High pressure will bring dry weather to the North Island during the weekend, although rain may begin to affect Northland by Sunday afternoon (29 October).
• Moisture from the remnants of ex-Tropical Cyclone Lola is likely to affect the North Island on Monday and Tuesday, with parts of the upper and eastern North Island likely seeing heavy rain on Monday.
• By the middle of next week there may be at least a brief drier window.
• Weekly rainfall totals of 50-100 mm will be possible in the upper half of the North Island, with isolated higher amounts. Farther south, weekly totals of 30-50 mm are expected.
• Due to the expected rainfall in the next week, soil moisture levels may increase significantly, especially in the northern half of the island.
• No hotspots are expected to form in the North Island in the next week.

South Island:

• After a few showers on Friday (27 October), high pressure will bring dry weather to the South Island from Saturday to Monday.
• By Tuesday (31 October), the remnant moisture from ex-Tropical Cyclone Lola could result in showers or rain in the upper South Island, but rainfall amounts are not expected to be significant at this time.
• The middle portion of next week may feature scattered showers.
• Weekly rainfall totals of 20-40 mm are expected along the West Coast, with generally less than 20 mm elsewhere. However, parts of Canterbury may see rainfall totals of less than 10 mm.
• Due to the expected rainfall in the next week, soil moisture levels are likely to decrease across most regions, with the largest decreases expected in the eastern South Island.
• The current hotspot located along the border of eastern Marlborough and the Kaikōura District could strengthen and expand at least slightly in the next week, although no additional hotspots are expected to form.

Long-term outlook (through late November):

• The wetter than normal anomalies (green) shown in the maps below are mostly the result of the remnant moisture from ex-Tropical Cyclone Lola that is expected to affect the upper and eastern North Island in the coming days.
• The drier (25th percentile) and middle (50th percentile) scenarios both favour drier than normal conditions in the South Island, with very dry conditions potentially signalled in Canterbury and Otago.
• However, in the wetter (75th percentile) scenario, near normal rainfall is favoured for many of these areas.
• Particularly in the drier rainfall scenario, there is a signal for dry conditions to emerge in parts of the eastern and lower South Island over the next 35 days.  

Pictured above: 35-day forecast rainfall anomaly scenarios (Top), and 35-day forecast dryness and drought scenarios (Bottom). These maps are updated daily at https://niwa.co.nz/climate/seasonal-climate-outlook 

Background:

Hotspot Watch: a weekly advisory service for New Zealand media. It provides soil moisture and precipitation measurements around the country to help assess whether extremely dry conditions are imminent. 

Soil moisture deficit:  the amount of water needed to bring the soil moisture content back to field capacity, which is the maximum amount of water the soil can hold.

Soil moisture anomaly:  the difference between the historical normal soil moisture deficit (or surplus) for a given time of year and actual soil moisture deficits.

Definitions: “Extremely” and “severely” dry soils are based on a combination of the current soil moisture status and the difference from normal soil moisture (see soil moisture maps at https://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/nz-drought-monitor/droughtindicatormaps)

Hotspot: A hotspot is declared if soils are “severely drier than normal” which occurs when Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD) is less than -110 mm AND the Soil Moisture Anomaly is less than -20 mm.

Source: NIWA – National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

A suite of projects that ranged from whether toothpaste’s a scam to capturing air, to human superpowers made up the 206 entries at this year’s NIWA Auckland City Science & Technology Fair.

Coming out as the best overall was Diocesan School for Girls student Lauren Chee with her entry MFC-eize the Day. Lauren investigated the effect of changing glucose concentration on the voltage output of a yeast microbial fuel cell (MFC).

Lauren’s interest in redox reactions and electrolytic cells sparked her idea and MFCs crossed into her love for biology.

“I thought this is a really cool overlap between different disciplines,” says Lauren.

“I found that it’s a potential way to generate sustainable electricity. However, one of the issues that’s held back its widespread use is its low voltage output. Hence, I wanted to investigate how a particular factor could improve its viability.”

As well as the project being a success Lauren says for her the other unexpected result was that others found it interesting.

“I didn’t expect it to have as much recognition as it did!”

This is Lauren’s first time entering the Auckland Science Fair.

“I had planned to do it as an experience kind of thing as I’m in year 13 and wanted to try and do as many new activities before I left school,” says Lauren. “So I went in not really expecting much!”

Runner up overall and NIWA Auckland Prize for Best Exhibit in Atmospheric and Water Science was Epsom Girls’ Grammar School student Anushka Dissanayake. Anushka’s project, The Invisible World of Environmental DNA, investigated the impacts that severe weather events had on the correlation between the water quality and biodiversity in Auckland’s streams.

NIWA science fair coordinator and urban aquatic scientist Annette Semadeni-Davies has been part of the Auckland fairs for many years and she commented that the excitement of the kids is always striking.

“The buzz amongst these young scientists constantly amazes me and is wonderful to see”.

NIWA is a key supporter and sponsor of regional Science and Technology Fairs throughout Aotearoa New Zealand and has been for more than two decades. Sponsoring the fairs is part of a long-term NIWA commitment to enhancing science and technology for young New Zealanders.

The fair was hosted by Michael Park School with 20 schools participating from year nine through to year 13. There were 168 prizes awarded with 278 students taking part.

The fair is about encouraging young people towards problem solving and creative discovery. For the Auckland region the NIWA North Harbour Science & Technology air and the NIWA South and East Auckland Science & Technology Fair.

Full results can be found at scifair.org.nz .

Source: NIWA – National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

A weekly update describing soil moisture patterns across the country to show where dry to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent. Regions experiencing significant soil moisture deficits are deemed “hotspots”. Persistent hotspot regions have the potential to develop into drought.

Recent rainfall and current soil moisture conditions:

North Island:

• Rainfall of 30-60 mm was observed in small pockets of southern Waikato, Taranaki, and the lower North Island during the past week.
• However, in a majority of the upper and eastern North Island, weekly rainfall totals were generally 5-20 mm.
• This resulted in small to moderate soil moisture decreases across a majority of the North Island.
• The driest soils across the North Island, when compared to normal for this time of the year, are found near East Cape, while the wettest soils for this time of the year are found in southern Gisborne and northern Hawke’s Bay.
• No hotspots currently exist in the North Island.
• As of 15 October, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the North Island.

South Island:

• Rainfall of 75-200 mm occurred across most of the West Coast in the past week, including Tasman.
• Amounts of 30-60 mm were observed in interior Canterbury and Marlborough Sounds.
• The east coast from Marlborough to Southland saw amounts of 15-25 mm.
• This resulted in soil moisture increases across a majority of the South Island, with the largest increases observed in Tasman, the West Coast, and interior Canterbury.
• The driest soils across the South Island, when compared to normal for this time of the year, are found in Marlborough Sounds, while the wettest soils for this time of the year are found in northern Canterbury.
• No hotspots currently exist in the South Island.
• As of 15 October, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the South Island.

 Pictured above: Soil Moisture Anomaly Maps, relative to this time of year. The maps show soil moisture anomalies over the past two weeks.

As of 15 October, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the country. Please note: some hotspots in the text above may not correspond with the NZDI map. This difference exists because the NZDI uses additional dryness indices, including one which integrates the rainfall deficit over the past 60 days. Changes are therefore slower to appear in the NZDI compared to soil moisture anomaly maps that are instantaneously updated.

The week ahead:

North Island:

• Low pressure north of Cape Reinga will bring moderate rain to Northland on Thursday and Friday (19-20 October), while other areas remain mostly dry.
• Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the upcoming weekend, but rainfall will be very localised.
• After generally dry weather on Monday (23 October), a front could bring moderate rain by late Tuesday or Wednesday (24-25 October).
• Weekly rainfall totals of 30-50 mm will be possible in Northland and parts of the western North Island, with most other locations receiving 15-30 mm.
• Due to the expected rainfall in the next week, soil moisture levels may increase slightly in Northland and parts of the western North Island, but little change is expected elsewhere.
• No hotspots are expected to form in the North Island in the next week.

South Island:

• High pressure will generally be in control of the South Island’s weather over the next several days.
• Between Thursday and Monday (19-23 October), only scattered showers will affect the eastern and lower South Island with generally light rainfall amounts.
• However, towards the middle of next week, low pressure could bring moderate rain to the West Coast.
• Weekly rainfall totals of 25-50 mm are expected along the West Coast and Tasman.
• However, for locations east of the divide, along with the lower South Island, weekly rainfall totals are likely to be 15 mm or less.
• Due to the expected rainfall in the next week, soil moisture levels are likely to decrease across most regions, with the largest decreases expected in the eastern South Island.
• No hotspots are expected to form in the South Island in the next week.

Long-term outlook (through mid-November):

• El Niño is expected to bring more westerly air flows than normal to New Zealand over the next several weeks, although periodic southerlies are also likely.
• The drier (25^th percentile) scenario for rainfall over the next 35 days indicates that the West Coast of the South Island could see near normal rainfall, while much of the North Island and eastern and lower South Island are favoured to see near normal to below normal rainfall.
• However, in the wetter (75^th percentile) scenario, parts of the North Island and upper South Island could see above normal rainfall.
• Even in the drier rainfall scenario, there is currently only a muted signal for dry conditions to emerge in parts of the eastern South Island over the next 35 days.  

Pictured above: 35-day forecast rainfall anomaly scenarios (Top), and 35-day forecast dryness and drought scenarios (Bottom). These maps are updated daily at https://niwa.co.nz/climate/seasonal-climate-outlook 

Background:  

Hotspot Watch: a weekly advisory service for New Zealand media. It provides soil moisture and precipitation measurements around the country to help assess whether extremely dry conditions are imminent. 

Soil moisture deficit:  the amount of water needed to bring the soil moisture content back to field capacity, which is the maximum amount of water the soil can hold.

Soil moisture anomaly:  the difference between the historical normal soil moisture deficit (or surplus) for a given time of year and actual soil moisture deficits.

Definitions: “Extremely” and “severely” dry soils are based on a combination of the current soil moisture status and the difference from normal soil moisture (see soil moisture maps). 

Hotspot: A hotspot is declared if soils are “severely drier than normal” which occurs when Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD) is less than -110 mm AND the Soil Moisture Anomaly is less than -20 mm.

Source: NIWA – National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

A new study from NIWA has mapped outdoor air quality for Invercargill and Alexandra in more detail than ever before. 

Researchers found that outdoor air in the most polluted locations contained three times as much particulate matter – from smoke and other pollutants – as the air in the least polluted areas.  

Dr Ian Longley is NIWA’s principal scientist for air quality. He says this is largely due to where the wind blows. 

“We have managed to pinpoint exactly where air pollution is better or worse across the whole area. Interestingly, it’s not necessarily where the pollution is created that you find poorer air quality. Rather, it tends to settle where the wind transports it, which is generally southward in Invercargill and westward in Alexandra. 

“Air also settles into valleys, even shallow ones, meaning that even in relatively flat towns like Invercargill, you get more pollution in lower areas of land,” said Dr Longley. 

Environment Southland partially funded this mapping project to better understand the concentrations of pollutants people in Invercargill are breathing in every day from fireplaces, industry and vehicles.

Dr Nick Talbot, Environment Southland air and terrestrial science team leader, says the data backs up why it’s important, no matter where someone lives in the Invercargill airshed, that they are being mindful of how they are burning.

“It doesn’t matter if you live in south Invercargill or north Invercargill, what matters is doing your best to reduce air pollution while keeping your whānau warm over winter. The best way to do this is by burning dry wood hot and bright, not banking your fires overnight and making sure to get your chimney cleaned regularly. This will help Southlanders breathe easy.”

A second part of the NIWA study looked at how much of this pollution is getting into people’s houses. Working alongside local community organisation South Alive, NIWA installed air quality monitors in the homes of six volunteers in Invercargill to collect data every few minutes on levels of particulate matter.  

This enabled the scientists to work out whether indoor air was being contaminated from inside or from outside the home, or both. 

“Even though our homes feel generally secure from the outside world, we found that at least half of the polluted air is finding its way in, whether that be through doors, floorboards, or small gaps in the walls,” said Dr Longley. 

Air pollution is particularly bad in the winter months when more people are burning wood and coal to keep warm. This worsens the air quality in towns and cities across New Zealand, especially when the wind drops.  

Poor air quality has been linked to several health conditions, such as headaches, asthma, and respiratory infections.  

“Luckily, there are solutions – we trialled air filtration units in the homes of our volunteers and were able to reduce pollution levels by 50–90%. They do make a bit of noise, somewhat like a heat pump, but most people found a good spot for them and were very happy to have them. 

“In fact, when we removed them at the end of the study, we had a couple of comments saying what a shame it was, because people could really feel the difference,” said Dr Longley. 

NIWA hopes their study will help councils better understand how air quality varies in towns and cities, which in turn will help set regulation and design solutions for good indoor air quality in the future.  

There are plans to replicate it in towns and cities across the country. 

“Although we can use filtration to scrub indoor air clean, it is always better to stop or reduce pollution at its source. Switching to electric heating will remove heating emissions entirely, while keeping chimneys clean, using dry or ultra-low emission wood, and using pellet burners are a few other steps that people can take that will help.  

“In all, there are many things we can do to keep our homes and whānau healthy, and this study is a big step in helping to drive the best action moving forward.” 

The study also used Otago Regional Council’s air-quality data from Alexandra and Environment Southland’s data from Invercargill.

Source: NIWA – National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

A weekly update describing soil moisture patterns across the country to show where dry to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent. Regions experiencing significant soil moisture deficits are deemed “hotspots”. Persistent hotspot regions have the potential to develop into drought.

Recent rainfall and current soil moisture conditions:

North Island:

• Rainfall of 25-50 mm was commonplace across much of the east coast in the past week.
• Moderate amounts also fell in the upper North Island.
• However, meagre rainfall of 5 mm or less occurred in Manawatū-Whanganui and Wellington.
• This resulted in soil moisture increases along the east coast, but minor decreases in the western and lower North Island.
• The driest soils across the North Island, when compared to normal for this time of the year, are found in Waitomo District and northern Taranaki, while the wettest soils for this time of the year are found in coastal Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay.
• No hotspots currently exist in the North Island.
• As of 9 October, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the North Island.

South Island:

• Rainfall of 25-60 mm occurred across most of the West Coast in the past week.
• While 15-25 mm fell in central Canterbury, most of the upper and eastern South Island received less than 10 mm of rainfall.
• This resulted in soil moisture decreases across a majority of the South Island, with the largest decreases observed in Tasman, Nelson, and Marlborough Sounds.
• The driest soils across the South Island, when compared to normal for this time of the year, are found along the northern coast from Tasman to Marlborough Sounds, while the wettest soils for this time of the year are found in northern Canterbury and interior Otago.
• No hotspots currently exist in the South Island.
• As of 9 October, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the South Island.

Soil Moisture Anomaly Maps, relative to this time of year. The maps show soil moisture anomalies over the past two weeks. 

As of 9 October, the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI) map below shows that no unusually dry conditions are currently found across the country. 

Please note: some hotspots in the text above may not correspond with the NZDI map. This difference exists because the NZDI uses additional dryness indices, including one which integrates the rainfall deficit over the past 60 days. Changes are therefore slower to appear in the NZDI compared to soil moisture anomaly maps that are instantaneously updated.

The week ahead:

North Island:

• The next couple of days (12-13 October) will feature isolated, light showers in the western North Island, with generally dry weather elsewhere.
• From Saturday to Tuesday (14-17 Oct), there will be an increased chance for showers and rain in the western North Island, with the potential for some rain to reach the east coast late in that period.
• By the middle of next week there is a possibility that low pressure could bring moderate rainfall to the upper North Island.
• Weekly rainfall totals of 30-50 mm will be possible in the western North Island, but other parts of the island will likely see totals of 25 mm or less.
• Due to the expected rainfall in the next week, soil moisture levels may increase at least slightly in the western North Island, but little change is expected elsewhere.
• No hotspots are expected to form in the North Island in the next week.

South Island:

• Heavy rain will impact the West Coast from late Friday through Sunday (13-15 October), while moderate rainfall amounts will affect Southland and Otago. However, the rest of the east coast will remain mostly dry.
• High pressure is forecast to bring mostly dry conditions during early-to-mid next week, with only small additional accumulations in the West Coast.
• Weekly rainfall totals will range from 70-200 mm along the West Coast, with the highest totals located in the lower West Coast and Fiordland.
• In Southland and Otago, weekly totals of 30-50 mm will be possible, while the rest of the east coast receives less than 20 mm.
• Due to the expected rainfall in the next week, soil moisture levels are expected to increase in the West Coast and lower South Island, but small decreases may occur in Canterbury and Marlborough.
• No hotspots are expected to form in the South Island in the next week, but conditions may begin to approach hotspot status in eastern Marlborough.

Long-term outlook (through mid-November):

• El Niño is expected to bring more westerly air flows than normal to New Zealand over the next several weeks.
• The drier (25^th percentile) and middle (50^th percentile) scenarios for rainfall over the next 35 days indicate that the West Coast of the South Island could see near normal to above normal rainfall, while the top and east of both islands are favoured to see near normal to below normal rainfall.
• However, in the wetter (75^th percentile) scenario, even the east of both islands could see areas with above normal rainfall.
• Particularly in the drier rainfall scenario, there will be an increased chance to see dry conditions develop in at least small parts of the eastern South Island.

Source: NIWA – National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

A Year 13 from Saint Kentigern College scooped top prizes at the 2023 NIWA South and East Auckland Science Fair for her project “Crab-a-dabra!”.

Ivy Wang spent the last few months getting muddy as her project investigated NZ tunnelling mud crab abundance and distribution in mangrove areas. 

Recognising that this small species has a great impact on ecosystem health, Ivy’s research explored the influence of sediment and pneumatophore properties of Mangroves on crab size and distribution in the Tamaki estuary.

“I wanted to have a better understanding of organism distribution in mangrove ecosystems, which may perhaps lead to better management of our estuaries. I hope my project can support estuarine management and improve NZ ecosystem conditions in the future,” said Ivy.

Ivy won First Place in the Year 11-13 Open Category, Best Use of Statistics Award, Best Innovation, Invention or Investigation by a Year 13, and the Premier Award for Best Exhibit of the Fair.

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Her project did not come without its challenges involving extensive fieldwork, laboratory analysis and a long research and editing process.

“Every challenge that came up was a highlight! Reading countless papers, conducting tedious fieldwork, editing and typesetting. Because of them, I learnt research skills within academia and am constantly expanding my understanding, questioning my statements and achieving higher accuracy.”

“This fair fundamentally affirmed my aspiration to step into research in the future.” 

Auckland Science Fair coordinator and NIWA urban aquatic scientist Annette Semadeni-Davis was once again left impressed by the quality and level of engagement of the students involved. 

“I have been coordinating science fairs in Auckland for over 10 years now and it always amazes me how enthusiastic and creative the kids can be and how responsive they are to the issues of the day, from testing whether light-proof milk bottles really do keep milk fresher a few years ago to numerous projects this year on flood risk management,” said Annette. This year’s NIWA South and East Auckland Science Fair was held on 25 August at Mission Heights Junior College. 

Providing major sponsorship for many of the science fairs throughout New Zealand is part of NIWA’s long-term commitment to enhancing science and technology for young New Zealanders. NIWA is also a major sponsor of the Auckland City, Wellington, Bay of Plenty, Canterbury-Westland and Waikato Science and Technology Fairs.

View the full list of winners. https://www.sciencefairmanukau.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Prize-g…

For more information visit https://www.sciencefairmanukau.org.nz/ 

Source: NIWA – National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

NIWA are studying the ocean off Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay to see how Cyclone Gabrielle has impacted the health of fisheries habitats and seabed ecosystems. 

Cyclones can cause huge changes to the ocean environment through the influx of silt from the land via rivers, increased ocean mixing, and re-suspension of sediments from the seafloor. 

Project leader Dr Daniel Leduc says the cyclone caused considerable damage to land and property, but effects on the ocean are harder to gauge.  

“One of the most shocking sights from Cyclone Gabrielle was those huge sediment deposits that buried houses to their rooftops. The home of our marine life is also impacted, only it is harder to map and is constantly moved around by water currents, waves, and tides.  

“Our job is to assess where the impacts have been felt and to what extent, particularly in vulnerable habitats and places where species like flounder and gurnard live close to the seafloor,” said Dr Leduc.   

A key output of this work is to develop models which will help determine where this sediment has ended up. This involves analysis of sediment using tools like satellite imagery, but also through several sea voyages throughout the year to collect samples of the sediment, obtain video footage of the seafloor, and map it using soundwaves. 

In April, NIWA completed 13 days of multibeam sonar mapping of the seafloor to look for cyclone-induced sediment deposits, which they compared with previous mapping. This was followed by a 19-day voyage in June where they captured additional video footage and took samples through sediment coring.

Dr Leduc says the crew observed encouraging signs of life in the seafloor sediment cores, such as sand dollars, hermit crabs, juvenile shellfish, and sea cucumbers.

“These are important parts of the food web, and their presence could either mean that they were able to survive the increased sediment or that the sediment did not collect in these areas.” 

Dr Joshu Mountjoy, a NIWA marine geologist who specialises in seafloor mapping, says areas of the seafloor have been affected differently with many areas needing further investigation. 

“The Wairoa Hard, which hosts an important nursery for juvenile fish, showed no large-scale sediment build-up when we mapped the area in April. However, sediment cores taken in June had high mud contents that could be cyclone related. In addition, when the team conducted research trawls in June, they returned little biology, but lots of wood debris,” said Dr Mountjoy. 

Fisheries New Zealand commissioned NIWA to conduct this research and will use the information to help understand implications of the Cyclone on local fisheries.  

Dr Leduc said that how the ecosystem may have been impacted is unclear.  

“The water has been too murky to get any good images of the seafloor, but this area will be followed up again this year to gain more insights,” said Dr Leduc. 

Director Science & Information Simon Lawrence says the research provides a baseline to help inform how we manage these fisheries.  

“It is important to understand what is happening beneath the water now so that we can make good decisions about it for the future. While the NIWA team analyse these initial findings, a third voyage is planned for October to see how things have progressed,” said Mr Lawrence. 

Source: NIWA – National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

A newly launched tool developed by NIWA and the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) to predict dryness and drought will help farmers and growers be better prepared for challenging weather conditions.

Using the latest in artificial intelligence and long-range weather modelling, the free tool provides week-to-week predictions of rainfall, dryness, and potential drought 35 days into the future.

The outlook updates daily, capturing the latest changes in the climate system. It also offers long-term forecasts at a much higher spatial resolution than previously available.

Intro video about NIWA and MPI drought forecasting tool

The launch of the tool comes after official confirmation that the El Niño weather pattern has developed in the Pacific. El Niño events typically come with an increased risk for abnormally dry conditions across many regions of New Zealand, particularly in the north and east.

NIWA meteorologist, Ben Noll, said the new tool is already making a big difference.

 “This tool enables us to give more frequent and district-level predictions of rainfall, dryness, and drought. Providing advanced warning of future dry spells will be invaluable,” said Noll.

MPI’s director of Rural Communities and Farming Support, Nick Story, said the new software programme will be invaluable.

“The tool has been tailored for the primary sector and we’ve collaborated with farmers and growers over the last three years to ensure it provides useable information. Farmers and growers can utilise this tool to prepare in advance for drier than normal weather and the impacts this might have on production, pasture growth, and animal welfare,” said Story.

 Maniototo farmer and Irrigation NZ director, Emma Crutchley, said that any forecast, short or long-term, is good.

“What we find is if we can get a more accurate medium-term forecast, then that enables us to respond rather than working off a short-term forecast where you’re making reactive decisions all the time. Having as much information as we can around an uncontrollable thing, which is the weather, is really helpful to resilience in the farming business,” said Crutchley.

The drought forecasting tool is underpinned by the NIWA35 platform, combining a 35-day, global forecast model from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USA) with data-driven techniques to improve the model’s predictive capacity on a local level across Aotearoa New Zealand.

The tool is a companion to the NZ Drought Index (NZDI), an observational tool launched with MPI in 2017 that measures the current state of dryness and drought. Its users include much of the primary sector, as well as government and industry bodies.

Ben Noll said a lot of work has gone into making sure that the data is available in a way that works for those who need the tool.

“With climate change, the leading cause of increase in drought risk is the temperature-driven increase in atmospheric water demand. This leads to drier soil conditions, water stress for vegetation, and low hydrological flows. Having this new tool on our belt will hopefully help the country be more prepared for and resilient to potential droughts, both now and in the future,” said Ben.

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Source: NIWA – National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

A Wellington College pupil claimed two top prizes at this year’s NIWA Wellington Science and Technology Fair.

Winning the NIWA award for best overall exhibit, year 11 Jesse Rumball-Smith received $1,000 for his project “Driving Nudging Towards Zero: Technology to Reinforce Safe Driving”.   Jesse produced an interactive phone app to support people to make safer choices while driving, such as giving alerts if they are speeding. 

Their project complements Waka Kotahi’s “Road to Zero” campaign.  

“New Zealand still has an unacceptable crash rate. Jesse’s project addressed the root of the problem – behaviour. It successfully lowered both speeding and distraction by ~35% and led to fundamental behavioural improvements on each subsequent journey,” said Jesse. 

Jesse also won the Te Herenga Waka – Victoria University of Wellington (VUW) Science Innovation Prize for best exhibit in the class, taking away $5,000 towards first year fees in a VUW undergraduate science or engineering degree. Jesse spoke highly of his experience. “The science this year was a blast. The judges were great, the atmosphere amazing, and you can really explore what you’re interested in,” said Jesse. 

Wellington Science Fair coordinator and atmospheric scientist Sylvia Nichol was impressed by the high calibre of entries.  

“The calibre of entries was exceptionally high this year, displaying the great talent that we have in New Zealand and the promising future these youngsters can look forward to. These fairs inspire students to think and behave like scientists and engineers, letting them explore topics that are important to them in a hands-on, creative way,” said Sylvia. 

This year’s NIWA Wellington Science and Technology Fair took place from 30-31 August at Te Herenga Waka – Victoria University of Wellington. Providing major sponsorship for many of the science fairs throughout New Zealand is part of NIWA’s long-term commitment to enhancing science and technology for young New Zealanders. NIWA is also a major sponsor of the Auckland City, South & East Auckland, Bay of Plenty, Canterbury-Westland and Waikato Science and Technology Fairs. 

Other top prize winners: 

Royal Society of NZ Wellington Branch Prize for the runner-up best overall exhibit and the Te Herenga Waka – Victoria University of Wellington Faculty of Science Prize for the best exhibit in Classes 1 to 4 (an iPad) went to Isabelle Aduna, Year 9 student from Wellington Girls’ College, for her project “Riding the Waves”. Isabelle was also 1st in Class 3.   

First in Class 1 went to Gabriel Anthony, Year 7 student from Whitby Collegiate, for his project “I Sci With My A.Eye; Using Artificial Intelligence to recognise Science teachers”.  

First in Class 2 went to Elise Hargreaves, Year 8 student from Wadestown School, for her project “Rongoā Rakau vs Pharmaceutical Antacid Remedies”. 

 First in Class 4 went to Nevaeh Hickey, Year 10 student from Wellington Tawa College, for her project “Does caffeine affect your sleep?”. 

View the full list of winners.  For more information visit https://sciencefair.org.nz/