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Housing Market – First home buyers well placed for 2025 – CoreLogic

Source: CoreLogic – Commentary from Kelvin Davidson, CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist

In today’s Pulse, CoreLogic NZ’s Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson looks at the conditions facing first home buyers (FHBs) in 2025, with the data pointing to favourable market conditions – although their percentage share of activity may not hold at recent record highs.

Even if mortgaged investors and movers do take a greater proportion of activity in 2025, FHBs are still likely to buy a higher number of properties than they did last year.
Put simply, a larger overall number of transactions in 2025 should ‘float all boats’.

A look back at 2024The full-year CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for 2024 showed another strong performance from first home buyers (FHBs), making up 26.1% of property purchases. That was a new record high, surpassing the previous mark of 25.7% set the previous year. Granted, at around 20,850, the number of FHB purchases had been beaten on seven previous occasions since 2005 (including each year from 2019 to 2021), but it was still a solid year on that measure too.

Why have FHBs proven successful? Access to KiwiSaver for at least part of the deposit is one factor, while they have also been making full use of the low-deposit lending allowances at the banks. Getting around the loan to value ratio rules by purchasing new-build properties is another popular option at present, and we estimate that FHBs accounted for about 27% of new-build buying activity in 2024.
FHBs have also been taking advantage of plenty of choice (total available listings are high) and the soft market – their median price paid in 2024 was $698,000 (down from $719,000 in 2022). 
They are also benefiting from reduced competition. For example, ‘movers’ or relocating owner-occupiers ‘only’ accounted for 26.5% of activity last year, which is about 2%-points below their average.
At the same time, mortgaged multiple property owners (MPOs including investors) have had a tricky few years too, with their share of activity at 21.7% in 2024, versus the average since 2005 of around 24.5%.
That’s not too surprising, given that typical mortgage rates were above 7% for at least the first half of 2024, meaning that significant top-ups out of other income were required to sustain a standard new rental purchase. Interest deductibility was back to 80% for most of the 2024 calendar year, but the Brightline Test only came down on 1st July 2024 while the deposit rules were eased from 35% to 30% on the same day.
2025 outlook
Looking ahead, our expectation is that overall property sales volumes will rise from around 80,000 in 2024 to 90,000 in 2025, reflecting the lagged effects of lower mortgage rates and the anticipation of a growing economy again, albeit slowly. 
That being said, further job losses in the near term are unfortunately looking likely, and debt to income ratio limits will also become a consideration, although the ‘generous’ 20% speed limit and the new-build exemption should mean they don’t put a hard stop on activity.
In this environment, it would not be a surprise to see a higher number of deals from all buyer groups, especially the three main cohorts of FHBs, mortgaged investors, and movers.
Anecdotally, we have seen evidence that movers are starting to become more active again as housing chains free up, especially in the ‘next home’ segment (i.e. previous FHBs who are now looking to trade up), while mortgaged investors have also shown clear signs of a comeback.
Although mortgaged investors’ calendar-year market share in 2024 was still quite low, the quarter-by-quarter figures had turned up by the end of year, hitting 22.6% in Q4 – their strongest result since the middle of 2022. Our more granular analysis shows that this was driven primarily by smaller/new investors (those who now own two properties in total after their latest purchase), or the cliched ‘Mums and Dads’.
To illustrate the impact of lower mortgage rates on those top-ups: If you plug in a purchase price of $780,000 (the median paid by mortgaged MPOs in 2024), assume 30% deposit, 4% gross rental yield, interest-only mortgage (and 100% deductibility), a drop in mortgage rates from around 7% to about 5.5% broadly cuts the weekly cash requirement from $350 to $200. That’s still significant for a new investor, but much less of a hurdle than before.
A story of many buyers
Looking ahead, 2025 looks set to be busier year for the property market in general and across the various buyer groups. However, market share must always equal 100%, and even though FHBs will likely buy more properties this year than last, it is still conceivable that their percentage share of activity will drop back from recent record highs, as mortgaged investors and movers return closer to their normal positions.
In turn, that may well prompt fears or headlines that first home buyers are being shut out again. But as an example, they could see their market share drop to 24% this year and still purchase about 1,000 more properties than in 2024. In other words, a lower market share doesn’t mean the demise of FHBs.
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Transport – Desert Road closure costing freight businesses an estimated $100,000 per day

Source: Ia Ara Aotearoa Transporting New Zealand

National road freight association Transporting New Zealand has emphasised the importance of getting the Desert Road on State Highway 1 reopened as soon as possible, estimating that the closure is increasing freight costs for businesses and consumers by $100,000 per day.
Chief executive Dom Kalasih says that while using block road closures allows NZTA to work more efficiently and safely on roading projects, it is essential that these are well managed and keep to schedule.
“Transporting New Zealand supported the block road closure approach for the Desert Road project, rather than operating stop-go for months and years on end. However, taking this approach means that NZTA needs to be providing regular comms updates and completing these works on time.
“If there are any delays with the Desert Road opening, it is critical that NZTA provides notice well in advance so that transport companies can readjust their plans to manage the extra demands.”
Kalasih says that having the closure extended would be bad news for businesses and consumers across the country.
“Based on NZTA information about the additional detour time and traffic data, we estimate the additional freight cost is in the order of $100,000 per day, due to approximately 800 trucks per day having to travel for an additional 35-40 minutes. Our members have no choice but to pass those costs on to their customers, and that shows up as higher prices for consumers.
“There’s also the loss in labour productivity and the significant impact on local businesses in the affected area to consider.
“The closure also increases risk to the resilience of the network. If SH4 between National Park and Tohunga Junction was to become blocked for any significant period, then inter-regional travel across the Central Plateau would be severely impacted.”
Transporting New Zealand sought an update from NZTA on how the project was tracking to schedule on Monday, and will be keeping their members regularly updated. 
About Ia Ara Aotearoa Transporting New Zealand 
Ia Ara Aotearoa Transporting New Zealand is the peak national membership association representing the road freight transport industry. Our members operate urban, rural and inter-regional commercial freight transport services throughout the country.
Road is the dominant freight mode in New Zealand, transporting 92.8% of the freight task on a tonnage basis, and 75.1% on a tonne-km basis. The road freight transport industry employs over 34,000 people across more than 4700 businesses, with an annual turnover of $6 billion. 
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ChildFund – Back to school? Not without clean water

Source: ChildFund New Zealand

‘Back-to-school’ means something different in parts of the Pacific
Children in remote areas of the Pacific, like the outer islands of Solomon Islands or Kiribati struggle to go back to school if they don’t have access to clean water, let alone access to pens, school books and a new school bag.
“The Pacific is our home too. It’s unacceptable that even one child in our region does not have easy access to the most important life-saving resource of all – water,” says CEO of ChildFund Josie Pagani
Some schools lack running clean water, and parents either cannot access or cannot afford bottled water. Children miss school to spend the day collecting clean water from sources many miles away.
“Lack of clean water has a domino effect. Dirty water impacts a child’s education, which then impacts their ability to work and earn an income, and even their lifelong health,” says Sharon Inone, CEO of Greenergy
Sharon has recently returned from working with the United Nations, to her home province of Temotu in Solomon Islands, where Greenergy is working with ChildFund New Zealand to bring clean water to her community.
“I made a promise to my mother that I would do something about the lack of clean water in our home, and that’s what I’m doing,” says Sharon Inone.
The lack of clean water in parts of Solomon Islands, Kiribati and other remote parts of the Pacific leads to dysentery, severe diarrhoea, hospitalisation and even death in children with their whole lives ahead of them.
ChildFund New Zealand is working with local communities across the Pacific to fix or build water infrastructure.
Without this work, too many children will miss out on an education, a career and even a full healthy life.
1 in 10 deaths for children under 5 years in parts of the Pacific is linked to diarrhoea, vomiting and dirty water. The Pacific has some of the highest rates of stunting in the world, with 33 per cent of children under the age of five in Solomon Islands suffering from stunting, and 15 per cent of children affected in Kiribati.
“Stunting doesn’t just affect physical growth. It affects a child’s brain development which makes it hard for them to learn. Preventing the illnesses that come from dirty water will help to reduce these rates. This is a fixable problem. So let’s fix it,” says Josie Pagani.
“I want our kids to grow up like normal kids, with access to the basics like clean water. Not to be born into the culture of looking for water every day. If they have clean water, kids will get the education they deserve. We are adding four to five more hours every day to their lives if they don’t have to search for clean water. These are hours that their parents can use earning an income instead of looking for water. It is adding more time to do more productive things,” says Sharon Inone.
“This is not just about water. It’s about people getting their lives back. It’s about stopping kids die. It’s about allowing parents time to make money, and the kids the time to learn. It’s about improving the standard of living and the health of children no matter where they live,” says Sharon Inone.
“Clean water changes everything.”
Give the back-to-school gift of an education to a child in the Pacific.
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New infrastructure research can aid disaster preparedness

Source: New Zealand Infrastructure Commission

New research from the New Zealand Infrastructure Commission, Te Waihanga shows how insurance can help us to manage natural hazard risks and choose how to prepare infrastructure for a changing climate.
“New Zealand has experienced some significant natural events in recent years,” says the Commission’s General Manager Strategy, Peter Nunns. “In dollar terms alone, we’ve seen at least $10 billion in infrastructure rebuilding costs from two large earthquakes and two storms since 2012. And that doesn’t of course include the impact of these events on people’s lives and businesses or the economy.”
Nunns says that not only is the likelihood and size of events such as storms expected to grow in coming years, but the replacement cost of infrastructure is growing too.
“On an inflation-adjusted, per-person basis, public infrastructure is now worth 70% more that it was in 1990. So, the cost of replacing it after a natural disaster is rising at the same time as the likelihood of a disaster is rising. It’s more important than ever to make good decisions about when and how to reduce risks and minimise costs.”
The Commission’s report Invest or insure? Preparing infrastructure for natural hazards looks at how insurance can help us decide if, when and by how much to invest in infrastructure adaptation or resilience.
The report shows that insurance prices rise as risks to assets, like the chance of flooding, and the cost to repair or re-build go up. Investing to make infrastructure more resilient or adapt to changing risks can bring down the cost of insurance. When infrastructure providers measure their risks and price them through insurance, they can make better risk management decisions by looking at whether the cost of resilience investments are matched by benefits from lower insurance premiums.
Providers must also factor in other costs – such as risks to public safety or damage caused by the failure of their infrastructure. These economic and social consequences can also be added to the providers’ insurance / resilience appraisal.
However, Nunns says that overall New Zealand has an incomplete picture of the hazards it faces, the risks these pose for our infrastructure, and how these are being managed. For instance, the last time a review of insurance coverage for public assets was undertaken – over 10 years ago – it found that less than half of public assets were insured.
“This is challenging, as our research shows that, in addition to helping to smooth out the costs of responding to natural hazards, insurance can also help infrastructure providers make better decisions about when and how to reduce risk and minimise costs.”
“Risks change over time. A risk management decision made yesterday might not be the best decision for tomorrow. It’s important that infrastructure providers consider this in their long-term asset management planning.”
Report key findings
– There is no single best approach to managing natural hazard risk to infrastructure. Instead, the optimal approach will vary depending on many factors, including likelihood and consequence of the hazard, and the relative cost of different options in different situations.
– To manage risk well, infrastructure providers need to have a good understanding of their assets and the risks to which they are exposed. They will also need the capability to assess their options and optimise their response to risks from natural hazards. However, at a national level, we lack comprehensive and consistent hazard data for providers to use to assess their risk.
– Quantifying risk and/or pricing it through insurance premiums, can help clarify the optimal risk management approach for infrastructure assets. Optimal resilience investments should reduce risk management costs, compared to continuing to pay risk related insurance premiums. When resilience investments are more costly than insuring risk, they may not be warranted.
– The optimal level of resilience will depend on the relative cost of resilience investments compared to the expected cost of (and the benefits we get from) the assets being protected. We can increase the case for resilience investment by focusing on keeping infrastructure delivery costs down. Conversely, rising infrastructure delivery costs will erode the case for resilience investments.
Background notes
– Our understanding of both the probability and severity of natural hazards continues to improve as scientific research progresses. Improving our scientific understanding and investigating hazards in more detail sometimes results in increased estimates of risk. For example, pre-2021 modelling estimated that there was a 30% chance of a major earthquake on the Alpine Fault over the next 50 years. More recent research has estimated the probability to be much higher, with a 75% probability of occurring over the next 50 years.
– In some cases, the underlying risks are also changing as climate change is expected to make severe weather events both more frequent and more severe.
– In recent decades, New Zealand has experienced annual reported losses equal to almost 0.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). These losses mainly reflect damage to residential property and businesses, as well as damage to infrastructure.
– Already, natural disasters cost New Zealanders more as a share of GDP than anyone else except Chileans. Some hazards will grow significantly in their frequency and intensity as our climate changes over the next 30-80 years.
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Fire Safety – Dry conditions prompt fire restrictions in Otago’s alpine area

Source: Fire and Emergency New Zealand

Fire and Emergency New Zealand has placed Otago’s alpine area into a restricted fire season from 8am, Wednesday 5 February until further notice.
A restricted fire season means anyone who wants to light an outdoor fire will need a permit authorised by Fire and Emergency, which they can apply for at checkitsalright.nz.
Otago District Manager Phil Marsh says the current warm, dry weather is forecast to continue over the next few weeks, raising the fire risk in Otago’s fragile alpine environment.
“Our highlands have some of the most beautiful tussock, grass and native forest in the country – and unfortunately it’s all quite flammable,” he says.
“Significant fires can ignite and spread quickly in these types of vegetation even when the fire danger isn’t that high.
“There’s very little rain expected, which means it’s especially vulnerable at present.”
Fires are already restricted or prohibited in the rest of the Otago district, due to the dry summer conditions.
“The Otago district can have large uncontrolled fires all year round, whenever there are periods of dry weather,” Phil Marsh says.
“The large vegetation fire on Mt Creighton in 2022 showed how quickly a significant fire can get started, with serious consequences for our environment and wildlife.
“The best way to prevent a wildfire is not to light an outdoor fire, which is why we’re restricting outdoor fires in the Otago alpine area.
“If you’re thinking about starting any kind of open-air fire, you must go to checkitsalright.nz first to find out if you can do that in your location, and what restrictions apply.
“We’re serious about protecting our people, property and environment, so we urge everyone to take extra care with fire this summer.”
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Aviation – Recent drone usage around Auckland Airport raises serious concerns

Source: Civil Aviation Authority (CAA)

4 February 2025 – The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) is concerned about any reports of unsafe drone operations near Auckland Airport which have the potential to delay flights.

“Unauthorised drone activity is careless and can present a danger to both aviation and public safety,” says Dean Winter, DCE.

The CAA continues to urge all drone operators to know, understand and comply with the Civil Aviation Rules and to fly responsibly. Anyone who needs to fly drones in controlled airspace must get clearance to do so from Air Traffic Control (ATC). This is easily done by filing a flight request through the Airshare phone app or online through the Airshare website:

New Zealand’s hub for drone users – AirShare: https://govt.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=f87e4df3e4e99e9d7eb7b4c7e&id=d1a6b915fc&e=f0dc75bbf6

These incidents highlight the importance of attending drone training courses to understand how to operate drones in a safe manner, especially near airports or other areas where public safety could be impacted.

When drones are reported in the controlled airspace adjacent to airport runways, Air Traffic Control have procedures to segregate passenger aircraft from any potential threat posed by unauthorised drone activity. Whilst this is not a normal situation, the procedures for dealing with such eventualities are trained for.

The airport’s controlled airspace or ‘control zone’ includes areas where aircraft operate at lower altitudes during take-off and landing, which makes the presence of a drone in these areas potentially dangerous.

Drone operators are required to get approval from air traffic control to operate within this airspace. Authorised drone activity within a control zone can occur with prior permission and/or coordination with ATC.

This is just weeks after a drone operator filmed footage during Auckland’s New Year’s Eve celebrations, hovering dangerously close to the top of the Sky Tower.

That flight, conducted at night, violated several Civil Aviation Rules, including flying over people and property without consent, operating within 4km of an aerodrome and flying at an altitude higher than the 120m legal limit.

For more information about safe drone flying, see:

CAA website’s drones section ( https://govt.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=f87e4df3e4e99e9d7eb7b4c7e&id=9f31d38b71&e=f0dc75bbf6 )

CAA’s summer campaign actively encourages drone operators to follow the rules ( https://govt.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=f87e4df3e4e99e9d7eb7b4c7e&id=8cdc2fd5ac&e=f0dc75bbf6 )

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Universities – Public lecture: Global famine after nuclear war – Vic

Source: Victoria University of Wellington – Te Herenga Waka

US climate scientist Professor Alan Robock will deliver a public lecture on 10 February 2025 about the environmental and human impacts of a nuclear winter.

Professor Robock is a distinguished professor of climate science in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University in New Jersey, and an expert in climate change, geoengineering, and the climatic effects of nuclear war. (ref. https://people.envsci.rutgers.edu/robock/ )

The lecture will explore the devastating effects of nuclear conflict, and propose policy changes that could reduce the risk of nuclear war and lead to the abolition of nuclear weapons.

Lecture details

5.30–7 pm, Monday 10 February

Lecture Theatre 2

Rutherford House

33 Bunny Street

Pipitea, Wellington.

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Home consents up in Otago in 2024, down in all other regions – Stats NZ media and information release: Building consents issued: December 2024

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Home consents up in Otago in 2024, down in all other regions – 4 February 2025 – There were 33,600 new homes consented in Aotearoa New Zealand in the year ended December 2024, down 9.8 percent compared with the year ended December 2023, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.

“Otago was the only region with an increase in the number of new homes consented in 2024,” economic indicators spokesperson Michael Heslop said.

The five regions with the highest number of new homes consented in the year ended December 2024 were:

  • Auckland with 13,939 (down 10 percent compared with the year ended December 2023)
  • Canterbury with 6,544 (down 6.0 percent)
  • Waikato with 2,755 (down 22 percent)
  • Otago with 2,338 (up 19 percent)
  • Wellington with 1,833 (down 24 percent).

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Local News – Porirua set to host another massive Waitangi Day event

Source: Porirua City Council

You can expect another awesome Waitangi Day event in Porirua.
Waitangi Day at Te Rauparaha Park on Thursday 6 February, runs from midday to 5pm and will feature live music performances from homegrown talent PERE and Kings.
Also hitting the stage will be Swiss, The Voice Australia’s Roland Williams, Ella Monnery and Hoseah Partsch, and Leisure Tomlins.
Don’t miss cultural performances by Mana Whenua me te Kāhui Kuratea, and visiting Canadian Indigenous group the Kumugwe Cultural Society.
The fun continues inside Te Rauparaha Arena and Pātaka Art + Museum, with lots of free activities for tamariki and art and history to discover.
Visitors will also have the chance to check out the many stalls set up on Te Rauparaha Park, as well as choosing from a range of tasty kai options from food trucks located along Norrie St.
The popular free waka tours are also returning for the day, giving people the chance to paddle around Te-Awarua-o-Porirua Harbour, thanks to Toa Waka Ama.
“Last year we welcomed more than 30,000 people into our city centre for Waitangi Day, with many coming from outside of Porirua,” says Porirua Mayor Anita Baker.
“The range of musicians, performers, activities, stalls and kai on offer means there will be something for everyone.”
Last year the event was named Best Arts, Culture or Heritage Event at the NZEA Event Awards.
This year’s event has a zero waste kaupapa, so remember to pack your keep cups for inu (drinks) and kai (food), and is smoke and vape free.
There are plenty of ways to get to Te Rauparaha Park for Waitangi Day – walk, scoot or bike to the city centre if coming from nearby.
As it’s a public holiday Council parking is free in the city, although there will be fewer available parks due to event road closures. Visitors are encouraged to catch the train to Porirua city and make the five-minute walk around the waterfront to the action. Some mobility parking spaces will be available at Te Rauparaha Arena.
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Local News – Elections 2025 – are you Porirua Proud?

Source: Porirua City Council

It’s an election year, and we’re asking people in Porirua to show how much they care about their city. This year you’ll decide who represents you around the Council table. There will also be a poll on whether the city should keep its Māori ward.
There are three phases to an election year – enrol, stand, and vote.
Council’s Manager Democratic Services, Jack Marshall, says while the election is just over eight months away, now is a great time to find out more. You can check you’re enrolled and, if you’re interested, start thinking about standing for Council. You can find out online anytime whether you’re enrolled for the general or Māori roll.
“We’ll be out and about at events across our city (including Waitangi Day), helping people to show how ‘Porirua Proud’ they are. Come have a chat about enrolling, standing, or how voting works,” Jack says.
“Our mayor and councillors make key decisions on how the city is run and these decisions impact our lives every day.
“Council is responsible for delivering essential services and infrastructure like roading, rubbish, recycling, the landfill, three waters, animal control, planning and building consents, as well as things like parks, reserves, sports fields and events that help make Porirua the great place it is.
“If you’ve ever thought about being mayor or a councillor, now’s the time to start thinking about standing. Come help ensure the Council reflects our diverse and vibrant city.”
Local elections are by postal vote, with voting closing on 11 October. Porirua has a mayor, and 10 councillors, which includes one councillor for the Parirua Māori Ward.
A key decision to be made this election by voters is whether the city should keep its Māori ward.
“There are big decisions to be made for our city’s future. Make sure your voice is heard – either by voting or by standing,” Jack says.
Check you’re enrolled at vote.nz or call the Electoral Commission on 0800 36 76 56.