Source: Save the Children
Greenpeace – Jones reveals Govt’s actual climate policy – expanding fossil fuel extraction
Source: Greenpeace
Govt Cuts – Workers sound alarm as Govt cuts impact services Kiwis rely on – PSA Survey
Source: PSA
Housing Market – Housing market close to a trough – CoreLogic
Source: CoreLogic
Property values in Aotearoa New Zealand edged -0.1% lower in January, marking the fifth month in a row with limited movement.
“Since the ‘mini downturn’ seen through the middle part of last year petered out in August, national property values have been in a holding pattern – not moving clearly in either direction,” he said.
“After all, not all areas have stopped falling, including Wellington. Given that the economy remains soft and the labour market subdued, it is unlikely we will see a sharp upturn in values.”
Index results for January 2025 – national and main centres
From post-COVID peak From 2024 mini peak From pre-COVID levels Median value Aotearoa New Zealand Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland $1,069,140 Kirikiriroa Hamilton Te-Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington* Ōtautahi Christchurch Ōtepoti Dunedin
Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland
Tamaki Makaurau Auckland’s sub-markets were a mixed bag in January, with North Shore recording a 0.3% rise, and Waitakere and Manukau flat (with Auckland City only down slightly, by -0.1%). However, in the more outlying areas the value patterns were weaker, with falls of between -0.3% and -0.5% in Papakura, Franklin, and Rodney.
Over a slightly longer three-month horizon, there have been signs of growth in North Shore and Waitakere (0.8% and 0.7% respectively), although other parts of Auckland have remained more subdued.
Mr Davidson commented: “It would appear that the downwards momentum across many parts of Auckland is slowing, and North Shore certainly looks to be a market worth keeping an eye on as a possible guide to where the rest of the city goes in the next few months.”
“Even so, with buyers still having plenty of choice, not least because of the pipeline of new property still being completed in Auckland, it’s difficult to see a broad-based upturn kicking off anytime soon.”
From post-COVID peak From 2024 mini peak From pre-COVID levels Median value $1,216,586 Te Raki Paewhenua North Shore $1,291,965 Auckland City $1,131,326 $1,014,115
Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington
The wider Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington area still stands out in terms of lingering property value weakness. Indeed, values dipped across the board in January, ranging from fairly modest declines in Kapiti Coast and Porirua, up to drops of 0.6% in Lower Hutt and 0.7% in Wellington City itself.
As Mr Davidson noted: “Parts of the Wellington area may be showing signs of optimism, or at least less pessimism.”
“But the latest data still shows that values in and around the Capital are generally facing continued downwards pressure, linked to the elevated level of listings available on the market, and presumably also the underlying concerns about public sector employment.”
From post-COVID peak From 2024 mini peak From pre-COVID levels Median value Kāpiti Coast Te Awa Kairangi ki Uta Upper Hutt Te Awa Kairangi ki Tai Lower Hutt Wellington City
Regional results
The early signs of some modest gains in property values that had started to become evident around regional areas in November and December have continued into January. That being said, Gisborne did drop by -0.5%, and Palmerston North and Invercargill also edged lower in January. But seven of the other eight markets covered in this section were either flat or rose by up to 0.3%, with New Plymouth showing a more robust 0.9% increase.
“It remains early in the process, but there are signs in a number of provincial areas that lower mortgage rates have brought the falls in property values to an end, and some modest growth might even have restarted in certain markets,” Mr Davidson said.
“Again, there’s cause for caution about how strong or sudden an upturn in property values might be in 2025, especially with the unemployment rate still rising. But the first signs of growth nevertheless seem to be emerging.”
From post-COVID peak From 2024 mini peak From pre-COVID levels Median value Ahuriri Napier Te Papaioea Palmerston North Heretaunga Hastings Whangārei Tūranganui-a-Kiwa Gisborne Whakatū Nelson Ngāmotu New Plymouth Waihōpai Invercargill Tāhuna Queenstown $1,631,244
Property market outlook
Looking ahead, Mr Davidson noted that the continued slowdown in net migration continues to dampen overall population growth and marginal demand for property, especially in the rental sector.
He said that would likely weigh on investor sentiment in the near term.
“Even so, the tax rules have become more favourable for mortgaged investors again, and of course lower interest rates are shrinking the top-ups from other income that are typically required to sustain rental property cashflows. Some extra demand from investors this year is firmly on the cards, although the debt to income ratio rules will be something this group may have to weigh up too.”
“Other buyer groups will also tend to target property in a lower mortgage rate environment, and certainly conditions remain favourable for first home buyers too. A more liquid and faster-moving market may also help existing owner-occupiers to get their house sold and allow them to press ahead with the next purchase.”
“All in all, 2025 looks set to be a stronger year for the property market than 2024, but the slowly emerging growth in values in some areas is not universal yet, and the upturn this year could well be more muted than in the past,” he concluded.
For more property news and insights, visit www.corelogic.co.nz/news-research.
Notes:
The CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index (HVI) is calculated using a hedonic regression methodology that addresses the issue of compositional bias associated with median price and other measures. In simple terms, the index is calculated using recent sales data combined with information about the attributes of individual properties such as the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, land area and geographical context of the dwelling. By separating each property into its various formational and locational attributes, observed sales values for each property can be distinguished between those attributed to the property’s attributes and those resulting from changes in the underlying residential property market. Additionally, by understanding the value associated with each attribute of a given property, this methodology can be used to estimate the value of dwellings with known characteristics for which there is no recent sales price by observing the characteristics and sales prices of other dwellings which have recently transacted. It then follows that changes in the market value of the entire residential property stock can be accurately tracked through time.
The detailed ‘frequently asked questions’ and methodological information can be found at: https://www.corelogic.co.nz/our-data/hedonic-index
Miners celebrate support for economic growth – Straterra
Source: Straterra Inc
Fire Safety – Fire restrictions eased in parts of Mid-South Canterbury
Source: Fire and Emergency New Zealand
First Responders – Tiwai Peninsula vegetation fire update #2
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Latest climate target as useful as a screen door on a submarine – Greenpeace
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Government signs NZ up to a decade’s more pine planting – Federated Farmers
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Auckland News – Developers Urged to Act Swiftly as Auckland Council Plans Major Development Fee Increases
Source: WarkWorth Web
The Auckland Council is planning a considerable hike in development contributions, which are the monetary fees residential property developers pay to fund local infrastructure projects. These contributions, currently calculated over a 10-year timeframe, are proposed to be spread over 30 years, leading to significant cost increases for developers.
The average development contribution in Auckland is projected to increase from $21,000 per lot to around $50,000 per lot. In some areas, such as Tamaki, the rise is even steeper, jumping from $31,157 to $119,000 per lot. The Inner Northwest region is set to see contributions soar from $25,167 to between $89,000 and $101,000 per lot.
Troy Patchett, Director of Auckland residential development company Subdivide Simplified, expressed concern over these proposed changes. “This increase could halt housing developments. Many developers may struggle to pass these costs on to consumers, making some projects unfeasible. This could further restrict future development and worsen the housing shortage in Auckland, New Zealand’s largest and fastest-growing city,” Patchett stated.
Patchett also warned that the increased contributions could lead to fewer housing developments and place upward pressure on the value of existing properties.
He strongly advises developers to submit their council applications as soon as possible. “If you can get your applications in before March, you should only need to pay the current development contributions and avoid this increase. Don’t delay starting your development projects,” he urged.
The calculation of development contributions takes place when development applications are lodged, with this window expected to close around April.