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Environment News – Fonterra on-farm emissions target futile without enforcement – Greenpeace

Source: Greenpeace

Fonterra, is New Zealand’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter and signalled its intention to set a target for reducing on-farm emissions at its annual meeting in November last year. Emissions from behind the farm gate is the dairy giant’s biggest source of emissions.
“Fonterra is clearly feeling the pressure from climate-concerned consumers and overseas markets. People both here in New Zealand and overseas want more action from big climate-polluting corporations,” says Greenpeace Aotearoa spokesperson Christine Rose. “But we’re sceptical of whether there is more to this announcement than optics.”
“When it comes to climate change, we already have more targets than an archery range. Targets, on their own, don’t lead to emissions cuts. They are all too often used by industry as an excuse for inaction and delay, as we’ve seen with the oil industry,” says Rose.
“Ultimately, when it comes to stopping climate pollution, it’s been proven time and again that the only effective strategy is Government regulation,” says Rose.
“We need the Government to cut big dairy’s climate pollution by phasing out synthetic nitrogen fertiliser and imported feed like palm kernel expeller, which are both key enablers of intensive dairy.
“Banning these inputs and instead supporting farmers to transition to more plant-based, regenerative organic farming is the most effective way to deal with on-farm emissions in the very short space of time we have left to address the climate crisis.”
The dairy industry is New Zealand’s worst climate polluter, with dairy cattle alone making up a quarter of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions. The industry currently faces virtually no restrictions on its climate pollution.
“Fonterra, and other dairy corporations like it, are polluting our climate with superheating methane and nitrous oxide gases, worsening the climate crisis and contributing to the devastating extreme weather events we’re seeing around the world – from Cyclone Gabrielle here in Aotearoa to the fires in Maui, Hawai’i,” says Rose.
“This election will be a test of which political parties are truly serious about climate action. It’s time for all political leaders to commit to taking on New Zealand’s worst climate polluter – the dairy industry.”
Greenpeace, alongside more than forty other organisations, is calling on all political parties to adopt ten key actions for a safe and stable climate and healthy environment – including action on the dairy industry. These are outlined in a plan known as Climate Shift. More than 13,000 New Zealanders have signed on in support of the plan since it launched in June.
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Transport News – Draft Land Transport GPS won’t deliver a resilient roading network

Source: Ia Ara Aotearoa Transporting New Zealand

Road freight peak body Ia Ara Aotearoa Transporting New Zealand has criticised the Government’s draft Government Policy Statement on land transport (GPS) for failing to adequately prioritise road network resilience. The GPS directs how money from the National Land Transport Fund is allocated towards achieving transport priorities.
Transporting New Zealand’s Interim Chief Executive Dom Kalasih says that the draft GPS will result in major tax hikes for road users, while failing to prepare the roading network for the future. The proposed increases in road user charges alone would add thousands of dollars to the cost of operating a truck and trailer each year, that trucking companies would be forced to pass on to consumers.
“At a time when New Zealanders are grappling with a cost of living crisis and a series of devastating weather events, the draft GPS completely misses the mark. The Government needs to be prioritising the fundamentals: a well maintained state highway network with strong regional connections that can transport people and freight safely and reliably.”
“Increasing road user charges for the trucking sector is not the pay forward “. The Ministry of Transport’s latest study on road pricing shows that compared to all other road users, trucks are by far paying most of their share. “It’s time other road users starting paying more of their share of the costs and the same goes for rail freight. It’s also time that investing the money that is collected needs to be focussed on benefiting those that are paying for it”.
Transporting New Zealand has consistently called for a road network resilience to be the overarching GPS priority, including substantial network improvements and maintenance. This year’s severe weather has highlighted the vulnerability of New Zealand’s regional connections, and the important of maintaining alternative routes.
“Another disappointing aspect is that this draft GPS is months late and it talks about a project being underway to look the future of revenue in the transport system. Funding is the absolute key and we really hoped we’d see much more advanced thinking in this regard.”
Kalasih is calling for the Government to reconsider its current approach. “GPS sets out transport priorities for the next ten years. This current draft isn’t going to prepare our transport system for the major challenges it will face over that time, particularly severe weather and an increasing freight task. We’ll be hammering that point home in our feedback to Government.”
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Local News – Speed limit changes confirmed for Porirua

Source: Porirua City Council

Speed limit changes confirmed for Porirua
Safety is the key factor in changes made to the speed limits on some Porirua roads, agreed to today by Porirua City Council.
At Te Puna Kōrero this morning, councillors and Mayor Anita Baker signed off the city’s Speed Management Plan that will lower limits around schools, marae, the CBD, Papakōwhai Rd, and Titahi Bay Rd.
Government rules, introduced last year, require a new approach to the management of speed on roads across New Zealand. Similar proposals to Porirua’s are being made by councils across the region as part of Waka Kotahi’s – which manages New Zealand’s major roads and highways – nationwide initiative, Road to Zero, for lower speeds.
The new changes in Porirua:
– 30km/h limits adjacent to schools and Porirua’s four marae, permanent or variable depending on the location
– 30km/h for all roads within the CBD during business hours
– 30km/h on all roads within Kenepuru Landing and on Ocean Parade (Pukerua Bay)
– 60km/h on Titahi Bay Rd and 50km/h along Papakōwhai Rd
– an increase to 60km/h on the Waitangirua Link Rd that joins with Transmission Gully.
Porirua Mayor Anita Baker says the safety of people on our city’s roads is the objective.
“We’re putting the safety of people first,” she says.
“We understand that we’re adding slightly to travel times by reducing speeds on our roads, but we need appropriate limits as more pedestrians and cyclists get around Porirua.
“The submissions told us that our residents want these lower speeds, especially around our schools to protect our tamariki.”
Ninety-eight submissions were made on the Porirua proposals, with more than two-thirds in favour of lower limits around schools and marae, and 95 per cent supporting the Waitangirua Link Rd limit being raised. There was a 50/50 split from submitters on lowering speeds along Papakōwhai Rd and Titahi Bay Rd.
A Council meeting in October will formally adopt the Speed Management Plan. The changes need to be formally accepted by Waka Kotahi’s Director of Land Transport, with the new limits to be implemented in the coming year.
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Te Whakatōhea Historic Moment: First Reading at Parliament for Treaty Settlement

Source: Atawhai Creative

Wellington 17th August 2023:  Today marked a significant milestone towards reconciliation and justice of what the Waitangi Tribunal has found to be “among the worst Treaty breaches in this country’s history”. The Treaty Settlement Bill for Te Whakatōhea received its inaugural reading in the halls of Parliament today.

The occasion was met with a palpable sense of anticipation and hope, as representatives from Te Whakatōhea, government officials, and dignitaries gathered to witness this pivotal moment in history. The proposed settlement holds the promise of addressing historical grievances and forging a path towards a stronger and more harmonious future for all parties involved.

Vaughan Payne, chair of the post settlement governance entity Te Tāwharau o Te Whakatōhea, says it is significant to be in parliament 158 years after the Crown waged war on Te Whakatōhea (September 1865).

” Getting here today has been a very long struggle.  The struggle started over 100 years ago when our tīpuna commenced the first of numerous petitions to Parliament seeking inquiries into the wrongs inflicted on us.

“I acknowledge those who are no longer physically with us.  Those who suffered and sought justice for the atrocities inflicted by the Crown on our whānau, hapū and Iwi over the past 150 years.  We are thinking of you, you are in our hearts” says Vaughan.

At dawn yesterday, a bus and a van filled with both elders (pakeke) and youth (rangatahi) embarked on a 10-hour hīkoi (journey) from Ōpōtiki to Wellington. More than 100 whānau members of Te Whakatōhea made the journey to sit in the parliamentary gallery, bearing witness to this inaugural legislative moment.  

The deed of settlement includes financial redress of $100 million, 5000 ha of marine space reserved exclusively for Te Whakatōhea, the transfer of 33 sites as cultural redress, 51 sites as commercial redress, relationship agreements with various Crown agencies, first right to buy Crown lands in the future and recognition by the Crown of the Treaty breaches, and a formal apology for those breaches.

“We look forward to a future where Whakatōhea can return to prosperity and moving together in a spirit of good faith and partnership.  We look forward to the Crown rebuilding and honouring the trust that our rangatira had they signed Te Tiriti o Ōpōtiki, 183 years ago.”

About Te Tāwharau o Te Whakatōhea

Te Tāwharau o Te Whakatōhea is the post settlement governance entity that will receive the settlement assets on behalf of ngā uri o Te Whakatōhea.

www.tewhakatohea.co.nz

Te Whakatōhea are based in the Eastern Bay of Plenty centred around the town of Ōpōtiki.  Their collective prosperity is recorded in their historical account agreed with the Crown:

“Whakatōhea soon realised the advantage of controlling the transport in the Auckland trade. Beginning in the early 1840s, they acquired their own fleet of … schooners and cutters. At least 22 ships were registered to Whakatōhea owners, comprising a significant proportion of the New Zealand registered vessels over that period.”

“Whakatōhea also developed the local and regional infrastructure. They were involved in building a new road, opened by March 1841, linking Ōpōtiki and Tūranga (Gisborne) and in establishing a postal service between the two centres. Within their own rohe Whakatōhea built ‘miles of good roads’, and several bridges of exceptional workmanship, ‘equal to many on the [Great] South Road’. In the early 1860s this road system provided access to a flour mill. The Whakatōhea hapū Ngāti Ira, under their rangatira Hira Te Popo, built this mill in 1858 for the cost of £800 and transported their produce to Auckland on their own cutter the Hira.”

“Whakatōhea developed political structures to deal with the changes in their economy and society. In 1861 a visiting Crown official reported that two large rūnanga were operating in Ōpōtiki; one for young people and one for adults.”

In the 1860s Te Whakatōhea tīpuna supported the Kingitanga and other Iwi to defend their lands from Crown invasions. In 1864 they united with other East Coast Iwi including Ngāti Porou, Te Whānau ā Apanui and Ngāti Awa to form an 800 strong taua who fought in numerous Waikato and wider Bay of Plenty battles: Tapuaeharuru, Ōrākau, Pukehinahina – Gate Pā, Maketu, and Te Kaokaoroa. On 8 September 1865, Te Whakatōhea were invaded by Crown troops. During the ensuing battles they lost highly valued and needed leaders and whānau members. The impact of this loss is felt by us to this day.

The Waitangi Tribunal found that the grievances of Te Whakatōhea are “among the worst Treaty breaches in this country’s history”.  The historical account further states”:

“The confiscation caused utter devastation for Whakatōhea, who lost everything between Ōhiwa Harbour and the Waiaua River including ‘all the flat and useful land’, the rich alluvial soils surrounding Ōpōtiki and Pākōwhai. The Crown confiscated around 18 of the approximately 21 miles (approximately 29 of 34 km or 86%) of the Whakatōhea coastline. … The Crown destroyed Whakatōhea homes, villages and took taonga. The Crown also took control of the infrastructure Whakatōhea had built up in their rohe, including ships, roads and bridges. The Crown sold looted Whakatōhea property to Pākehā buyers, including horses, cattle and the complete machinery of the Ngāti Ira flour mill. … The raupatu, along with the Crown violence and looting that preceded it, largely destroyed the thriving economy that Whakatōhea had built up since the 1840s.”

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Conservation News – New creature catalogue compiled to aid conservation – NIWA

Source: NIWA

A new database describing marine species has been released to assist conservation.
The New Zealand Trait Database – the first of its kind in NZ – provides information for more than 700 shallow-water seafloor invertebrates, such as snails, crabs, and worms.
The database includes information on everything from the animals’ feeding method and body shape, to the ways they move and mix the sediment they live in.
NIWA’s Dr Drew Lohrer, Strategy Manager for Coasts and Estuaries, helped with database development. He says it will be a powerful tool for understanding and protecting our native ecosystems.
“This database brings together information provided by many New Zealand and overseas researchers. It fills a big knowledge gap and provides a standard set of information – in one accessible online location – for us all to work with. The biological and functional traits information in the database opens doors to new types of analyses, which in turn will help us to protect species and their ecosystems,” said Dr Lohrer.
In recent decades, the use of trait-based analyses has advanced scientists’ understanding of marine ecosystem functioning, including how it will respond to environmental change.
“The NZTD enables us to describe the types of traits and functions that are likely to disappear if we lose species to pollution or disturbance. We can also gain insights into the resilience of animals living on the seafloor by examining how their traits overlap. For example, if one species is lost, ecosystem functioning may be maintained through the activities and traits of those remaining. However, if dozens of species are lost, we may lose critical functions entirely, which would have a bigger impact on the whole system.
Gathering this information together was no easy feat. NIWA Marine Ecologist Orlando Lam-Gordillo led the effort.
“Compiling the database was a substantial effort because we needed to describe around 18 traits with 77 sub-categories for each of the 700 animal types. We did this by scouring hundreds of pieces of scientific literature and biological collections, which as you can imagine is difficult and time-consuming. Because of this, these databases are scarce or lacking in many parts of the world, which until now, included New Zealand,” said Dr Lam-Gordillo.
The New Zealand Trait Database is an ongoing project, with continuous updates and refinements as additional taxa and trait information becomes available.
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Finance News – Good Shepherd NZ launches ‘Good Now, Good Later’ small loans

Source: Good Shepherd NZ

Good Shepherd NZ is excited to launch ‘Good Now, Good Later’ – small loans for people who need a hand with immediate, essential costs. Good Now, Good Later will never have interest and never have fees.
People working with community financial mentors will be able to access small loans of up to $500 within 48 hours, paid back over 16 weeks.
The proposed regulatory changes recently announced to Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) do not go far enough to mitigate the harm this lending can cause for some New Zealanders. Those with limited incomes and dealing with the high cost of living are particularly exposed to getting caught in a cycle of using BNPL for essential day-to-day living. The result is that the ‘interest free, fee free’ small value lending quickly becomes larger and unmanageable through default and collection fees, coupled with unsolicited increases to the amount people can spend.
To make sure the loans are suitable for clients, Good Now, Good Later loans will be provided based on a recommendation from the financial mentor they are working with. For people who are struggling to stay afloat financially, a Good Now, Good Later loan will provide a quick solution to their most immediate needs.
Good Shepherd’s Head of Financial Wellbeing, Natalie Vincent, says, “People can use a Good Now, Good Later loan to deal with their most immediate financial concern, which then let’s them get on with the important work of dealing with their longer-term financial challenges, with the support of their financial mentor.”
Half of the clients who currently approach Good Shepherd for support already have BNPL facilities they are unable to manage. To avoid missing payments and incurring fees, people are prioritising debt repayments over other essential family costs such as food and power.
Good Shepherd has a history of stepping into the gaps to provide better alternatives for people on the lowest incomes, and we are grateful for the support of BNZ to make Good Now, Good Later happen.
“We know that when community advocates and financial mentors have a wide range of products and services available to them when they are working with clients the more impact they can make, and we are really excited about working with them to get this off the ground.”
– Loans up to $500 within 48 hours
– 16 weeks to repay
– Available through financial mentors throughout New Zealand
About Good Shepherd NZ
We aspire for all women, girls and their families to be safe, well, strong and connected, and our objective in New Zealand is to support better futures for women, girls and their whānau who are experiencing disadvantage. In New Zealand we work across the areas of financial, social, and economic wellbeing, with a significant area of our focus on supporting the development of financial inclusion and microfinance programmes, in partnership with BNZ and with support from MSD, for families living on limited incomes.
Good Shepherd NZ is the official Charity Partner of the Financial Services Council Conference 2023.
Additional information:
– We see the impact of unaffordable BNPL lending on our clients. One of the ways we support people is through our DebtSolve programme, a free service for people with unmanageable debt – https://goodshepherd.org.nz/debtsolve/
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University News – Magnesium research set to inform preterm care – UoA

Source: University of Auckland

Giving magnesium to mothers just before early birth, at 30 to 34 weeks, may help babies’ brains develop, but more research is needed.

Care for mothers and preterm babies is set to be improved by new research on giving magnesium sulphate just before birth.

“We have known for 14 years that magnesium sulphate given just prior to very early birth, before 30 weeks’ gestation, is beneficial for the child’s development, and is now recommended practice” study lead Professor Crowther of the University of Auckland’s Liggins Institute says.
“What we don’t know is whether there is a similar advantage to administering magnesium sulphate at 30 to 34 weeks, which is still considered early.”
The Liggins research team, in collaboration with the IMPACT Clinical Trials Network of the Perinatal Society of Australia and New Zealand, recruited 1433 mothers and their 1679 babies into the trial, from 24 hospitals across New Zealand and Australia.
The mothers were randomised to receive either magnesium sulphate or a saline control as an intravenous solution shortly before birth at 30 to 34 weeks’ gestation.
The study, including a follow-up developmental assessment when the babies were two years old and known as ‘Magenta’, took place from 2012 to 2021. See JAMA.
Overall, the chances of the child surviving without cerebral palsy at two years of age were similar whether their mother received magnesium sulphate or the saline placebo (97.2% versus 97.6%).
The health of the child at two years was also similar, according to assessments for sight, hearing, language and cognitive development, height and weight.
However, there was a reduction in breathing difficulties (34% versus 41%) and use of oxygen long-term (5.6% versus 8.2%) in newborn babies whose mothers received magnesium sulphate. There was some suggestion children whose mothers were given magnesium sulphate may have more behavioural problems (10% versus 6%), but this will require further later follow up.
When the Magenta results are examined together with the earlier studies using magnesium sulphate before preterm birth the findings are similar, says Professor Crowther.
One thing the Liggins researchers plan to do is pool individuals’ data from Magenta with those from earlier studies to get summary information from a much larger number of mothers and babies to see if health benefits are seen at these higher gestations, particularly for cerebral palsy, and also to assess the best dose to use.
Importantly, the Magenta study found no significant harm to mothers receiving the intravenous magnesium sulphate at 30 to 34 weeks.
These findings provide helpful evidence that will help guide care of mothers at risk of preterm birth at 30 to 34 weeks’ gestation, says Liggins director Professor Justin O’Sullivan.
“The results will be available to healthcare providers caring for mothers and their babies and will be used to update the clinical guidelines for New Zealand and Australia,” Professor O’Sullivan says.

Read Prenatal Intravenous Magnesium Sulphate at 30-34 Weeks’ Gestation and Neurodevelopmental Outcomes in Offspring The MAGENTA Randomized Clinical Trial. JAMA 2023;330(7):603-614

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2808328

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Education News – Vocational Education Alliance established with CCIPE

Source: Te Pukenga

Aotearoa New Zealand’s largest tertiary institution has signed an arrangement with China to work together on vocational training.
The arrangement between Te Pūkenga – New Zealand Institute of Skills and Technology and China Center for International People-to-People Exchange (CCIPE) will include talent cultivation, cross credits, student exchanges and academic visits.
The Memorandum of Arrangement (MoA) signed at Parliament last night establishes the New Zealand-China Vocational Cooperation and Development Alliance, a framework for discussing and enhancing further cooperation between vocational training sectors in both countries.
“The MoA signed at such a high level with China shows the strength of a national vocational training organisation allowing us to explore even stronger links with Chinese providers for mutual benefit,” says Te Pūkenga Deputy Chief Executive – Learner & Employer Experience and Attraction, Andrew McSweeney.
The arrangement was signed by Director General, Department of International Cooperation and Exchange, Ministry of Education, Liu Jin and Mr McSweeney – on behalf of Te Pūkenga – at the New Zealand-People’s Republic of China 11th Joint Working Group on Education and Training.
It identifies areas for co-operation and collaboration, including:
  • Talent cultivation in a range of professional areas, particularly early childhood education, cross border e-commerce, new energy vehicles, healthcare for the elderly and culinary arts
  • Supporting and promoting a skilled labour force and laying a solid foundation for young people in China and New Zealand to upgrade their technical skills through ‘people-to-people’ interaction
  • Cross credit recognition, internships, student exchanges, academic visits, teaching and learning competitions promoting improvement of student vocational skills
  • Collaborative research including joint research forums, curriculum development, training programmes, faculty and ‘people-to-people’ exchanges and activities.
Te Pūkenga is a major outcome of Government reform of vocational education (RoVE). The reforms acknowledge the importance of a strong, high quality, interconnected skills training system to future economic growth and prosperity.
The network delivers on-campus, online and in-working learning to 270,000 ākonga (learners) through business divisions stretching from Te Tai Tokerau | Northland to Murihiku | Southland.
Currently, the divisions hold 66 active partnerships with education providers in China including between Ara and Shenyang Jianzhu University, Jinhua Polytechnic and Wintec; Hunan University of Technology and NMIT; Qi Lu University of Technology and EIT; Yiwu Industrial and Commercial College and NorthTec; Shandong University of Finance and Economics and Unitec.
“Collectively, there is a lot of experience and understanding in the network of what it takes to care for and deliver successfully to Chinese students both as international learners and in their home country and we are excited to take that to the next level with the scale we now have as Te Pūkenga,” says Mr McSweeney.
“The work we will do through the new alliance is based on enhancing the already strong reputation New Zealand vocational education and our qualifications have internationally. Te Pūkenga is excited about the benefits the arrangement can offer learners, staff, industries and communities in China and Aotearoa.”
The MoA has been signed as China and New Zealand increase emphasis on vocational skills training within their education systems to raise productivity and meet the future needs of key industries.
CCIPE is a public institution affiliated with the Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China.
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Recreation News – New Era For Freshwater Fishing Licences

Source: Fish and Game NZ

The freshwater fishing season begins on October 1, and new licences are now on sale.
Fish & Game NZ chief executive Corina Jordan says around 100,000 anglers are expected to go freshwater fishing throughout the country.
“Freshwater anglers are a passionate bunch, and the start of the new season is firmly on their calendars.
“We expect a flurry of activity now the new season licences are on sale. We know people are keen to get out with family and friends, enjoy the outdoors, re-connect with nature and fish for food.”
While most angling takes place in the country’s easily accessible lowland rivers and lakes, this season will mark the introduction of a new management tool to better protect New Zealand’s more fragile fisheries, which are often located in the backcountry.
“The new Designated Waters Licence will see Kiwi anglers get a fairer share on some of the waterways that Fish & Game’s research has shown are subject to too much pressure – around two per cent of the country’s rivers.
“The new licence category will help us manage angling pressure by spreading angling effort around so that it isn’t concentrated in certain areas, which detracts from the angling experience and also has the potential to negatively impact the fisheries.”
Over the past ten years, Fish & Game has received increasing complaints from resident and non-resident anglers regarding overcrowding in a small number of fisheries that will now be managed through the Designated Waters Licence.
“Our research and monitoring show that a small percentage of non-resident anglers will intensely fish a local area, not only putting pressure on the fishery but also displacing other anglers. We’ve implemented this new fisheries management tool to help address that imbalance.”
In some fisheries, angler use has gone from a roughly 50:50 resident-to-non-resident split (in the early 2000s) to an 80:20 split favouring non-resident anglers. In most cases, pressure-sensitive fisheries, now managed through the Designated Waters Licence, share common features. The rivers have very clear water, offer excellent sight fishing, hold large average size trout, have high scenic value, and are often located in a wilderness or backcountry setting.
Jordan says that “with a majority of our non-resident anglers fishing our backcountry fisheries for four or less days, most anglers won’t be impacted by the change”.
“It’s important to note that only a small proportion of anglers contributing to unsustainable angling pressure will be affected by this change.
“We really appreciate and value overseas anglers, the contribution they make to the economy, as well as our organisation through purchasing licences, which helps us protect waterways.
“Anglers can find out more about the Designated Waters Licence, as well as information and updates on the upcoming season on our website – www.fishandgame.org.nz.”  
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Economy News – Reserve Bank is still in ‘wait and see’ mode – CoreLogic

Source and Commentary by CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist, Kelvin Davidson.

Today’s decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to leave the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.5% will have surprised very few people. Inflation and inflation expectations have continued to show encouraging signs of a slowdown, and there have also been a few hints of a looser labour market too, partly thanks to high net migration.

In fact, the decision itself and the associated forecasts as part of today’s full Monetary Policy Statement had a distinct sense of ‘we’ve been here before’ – with the anticipated tracks for GDP growth (subdued), unemployment (edging upwards), and inflation (slowly falling) largely unchanged from last time the RBNZ published their full forecasts on 24th May.

They did slightly push back the timing for the potential first cut in the OCR from later in 2024 to potentially early 2025, but there wasn’t a clear sense that any further increases would be likely in the meantime. Indeed, the change to the OCR track seemed to just reflect a technical tweak, around where they think the underlying level of the ‘neutral’ OCR now sits.

Meanwhile, the RBNZ’s view remains that the house price downturn is essentially now over, but also that the ‘upturn’ could be pretty subdued – with prices potentially still below their previous (2021) peak in late 2026. We share those general expectations, with our caution about the next phase for the housing market stemming from the fact that affordability remains stretched, mortgage rates aren’t likely to drop much for another six to nine months at least, and there’s also potential caps on debt to income ratios looming in early 2024 as well.

Of course, it does also need to be acknowledged that many economic variables have moved quicker than anticipated in this new post-COVID world, and the combination of low new listings flows each week but rising sales volumes means the level of housing stock on the market is declining. This could potentially trigger some more abrupt competitive price pressures amongst buyers than we’re currently anticipating, although in turn this would tend to bring forward more listings and mitigate some heat for prices.

Overall, today’s OCR decision may come and go uneventfully, with the focus now returning to each piece of important data as it comes in. The implications for the housing market are also pretty neutral, but those with an existing mortgage due to be repriced from an older/lower rate up to current levels in the coming month or two will certainly be pleased to see the likelihood of a stable OCR for the next little while at least.