Reserve Bank Forecasts a year of recession and higher unemployment

Source: Council of Trade Unions – CTU

The Reserve Bank is forecasting a year of recession and higher unemployment, which is bad news for workers, said CTU Economist Craig Renney.

“In cutting the Official Cash Rate by 0.25% to 5.25% today, the Reserve Bank cited a broad range of indicators suggesting the economy is contracting faster than anticipated. Business investment is due to fall for the next 18 months. Government spending falls for next 15 months, as does residential investment,” said Renney.

“There is a synchronised fall in demand across the economy. Its time to change track. Unemployment is now forecast to rise to 5.4% in June 2025. The previous forecast peak was 5.1% – nearly 10,000 additional people unemployed in just a short period of time. Given the rest of the data in this announcement, this might yet prove an optimistic estimate of where unemployment ends up. Average wages are forecast to rise in real terms by just 0.2% over the next year (instead of 1.7% in the year to June 2023). This is a really worrying set of forecasts.

“It’s now possible to see why the Bank chose to cut. But it looks like the damage has been done – and government policy is making this worse. Inflation is expected to be in the target band inside the next 6 weeks – but cuts to government investment continue for more than a year.

“It’s time to change track. While the fall in interest rates will be provide relief for some, there is a bleak future ahead for working people and the economy unless we change economic direction,” said Renney.

Unemployment increase demands a plan from Government

Source: Council of Trade Unions – CTU

New data shows the unemployment rate accelerating to 4.6%, and worrying labour market trends that should spur the Government into action, according to the NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi.

“Unemployment is now growing across the labour force. There are now 30,000 more people unemployed than a year ago, and communities already facing labour market challenges are bearing the brunt of the impact,” said NZCTU Economist Craig Renney. 

“Young people aged between 15 to 24 accounted for around half the increase. Māori unemployment increased by 2% to 9.1% last year, and Pacific unemployment increased by 2% to 8.3%.

“New Zealand has gone from having an unemployment rate among the very best in the world, to now having a higher rate than the UK (4.3%), Australia (4%), the US (4%), and Ireland (4.3%). We are now ranked 18th in the OECD.

“Wages are also going backwards. Nearly one in two Kiwis (45%) saw a pay rise lower than inflation. Average ordinary time wages rose by the same rate as inflation last year – meaning workers aren’t getting ahead.

“The Government should be taking urgent action to get ahead of what could become a much deeper crisis. GDP is likely to fall again. Work in sectors like construction is falling away. Planned cuts to infrastructure and other spending by government will make that grim situation worse. There is an urgent need for an economic plan to tackle these issues,” said Renney.

“Rising unemployment means more and more families struggling just to put food on the table, keep a roof over their heads, and pay the bills,” said NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff.

“This Government is out of touch with the realities of working people. They have no plan to keep people in work and are making life harder for unemployed people by attacking their right to access benefits.

“They also scrapped plans to introduce the social insurance scheme, which would have meant that people who lost their jobs would have a guaranteed income to tide them over as they searched for a new job.

“Everybody deserves good work, work that is secure and pays well, and enables people to support their families. Government needs to step up with a plan to keep New Zealanders in work, and to support those who lose their jobs during these difficult times,” said Wagstaff.

NZCTU submit in opposition to charter schools

Source: Council of Trade Unions – CTU

“The NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi strongly opposes the reintroduction of charter schools in the education system and calls on the Government to withdraw this dangerous bill,” said Acting NZCTU Secretary Erin Polaczuk.

“It is outrageous that David Seymour has said that he is trying to undermine unions by amending the legislation to restrict the ability of unions to initiate bargaining for multi-employer collective agreements involving a charter school.

“We are demanding that the Government protect workers rights to redundancy and collective bargaining, and not breach it’s obligations under both the New Zealand Bill of Rights Act and the ILO conventions.

“This Bill threatens to introduce a for-profit education model in schools and communities right across Aotearoa, with the potential to fundamentally reshape the education system.

“This significant reform to our education system is being hastily pushed through by the Government, which is restricting the ability for those affected by the Bill to have their say.

“This model is far worse than what was legislated for under the last National government – giving the Minister and ministerial appointees the unilateral power to convert state schools to charter schools without due process and agreement from school communities is unprecedented and contrary to the principles of Aotearoa’s education system.

“Children and parents have the right to expect a high standard of education delivered by qualified teachers and to have a say in how their schools are run.

“We are also deeply concerned that under these proposals charter school sponsors will not be under the same legal obligation as state school boards to give effect to Te Tiriti o Waitangi,” said Polaczuk.


Read the submission here:

ERA determination on public service job cuts a win for working people

Source: Council of Trade Unions – CTU

The Employment Relations Authority’s determination that the Ministry of Education failed to comply with their workers’ collective agreement when cutting jobs sends a strong message that workers’ rights must be upheld, said NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi President Richard Wagstaff.

“The Government’s reckless attack on public services and workers has been brutal, and aspects of it have now been deemed unlawful,” said Wagstaff.

“We welcome this decision from the Employment Relations Authority, as it shows that government departments can’t just get away with ignoring their obligations to their workers.

“The directive from cabinet ministers to public service departments to make sweeping cuts to workforces has directly led to this disregard for worker’s rights and conditions.

“The Government’s rush to axe jobs has been indiscriminate – workers should be retained when public services are already struggling to keep up with demand.

“Working people deserve respect and dignity, and for their rights to be upheld. Collective agreements must not be ignored in pursuit of the Government’s ideological agenda.

“We congratulate the PSA for taking this case and fighting to uphold the rights and dignity of their members in the public service.

“This decision sends a strong message that employers must uphold their agreements with workers and not rush ahead with indiscriminate job cuts,” said Wagstaff.

Inflation data shows cost-of-living challenges continue

Source: Council of Trade Unions – CTU

Data released by Statistics New Zealand today shows that annual inflation was 3.3%, falling from by nearly half from a year ago (6% – June 2023).

 “This fall in inflation is welcome, but it is being driven by international factors rather than domestic actions. There are also costs for working people that continue to increase rapidly,” said NZCTU Economist Craig Renney.

“This data is also weaker than expected – suggesting problems within the wider economy. It supports other data which implies that we might be heading back into falls in economic output.

 “The falls in inflation were driven by reductions in the price of food, particularly fruit and vegetables. There are also falls in the price of furniture, household appliances, and the cost of second-hand vehicles. This data suggests a lack of demand in the economy and a lack of consumer confidence. There were also falls in IT equipment and international airfares – again suggesting that demand for these discretionary goods may be falling.

“Meanwhile, pricing for rents continues to increase rapidly – rising 4.8% annually. This is the fastest rate of growth for 17 years, which is as far back as the data goes. Local Authority Rates increased 9.8%. Insurance prices increased 14% annually, led by growth in property insurance (24%) and car insurance (24%). Petrol prices rose 14.7%. These are costs that are very difficult to avoid, and so will be hitting working people in their pocket.

 “This data will be welcomed by those looking for interest rates to fall. But they also suggest that economic growth is stalling, and that action is needed now to support employment and household incomes. The cuts in investment set out by the Government at the recent Budget are likely to exacerbate this problem even further,” said Renney.

19 organisations send Brooke van Velden open letter calling for engineered stone ban

Source: Council of Trade Unions – CTU

Unions, public health experts and health and safety specialists have today released an open letter sent to Minister for Workplace Relations and Safety Brooke van Velden calling on the Government to follow Australia’s world-leading example and ban the use, supply and manufacture of engineered stone products.

Australia’s ban, which came into effect 1 July 2024, was put in place following broad consultation, extensive analysis, and is based on scientific evidence that indicated engineered stone workers exposed to silica dust are disproportionately diagnosed with accelerated silicosis – a fatal lung disease.

“We are calling on Brooke van Velden to listen to the evidence and save workers’ lives by banning engineered stone in Aotearoa New Zealand,” said NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff.

“Dubbed the modern-day asbestos, the evidence of the harm caused by silica dust is overwhelming. It is clear that a ban on engineered stone is the only option.

“We have continued to warn the Minister that engineered stone needs to be banned. We are pleased to be joining with 18 other organisations to reiterate the urgency of this demand.

“There is no level of safe exposure to silica dust, and it can be fatal. Workers are developing symptoms at an accelerated rate, and at a much younger age than other occupational respiratory diseases. Silicosis is an incurable disease, but the exposure is preventable.

“We want Aotearoa to replicate the regulatory settings adopted in Australia to give workers, businesses, and the wider public the certainty that worker health will be prioritised.

“Work-related health issues kill between 750 and 900 workers each year, and hospitalise a further 5000-6000 workers. It is critical that we do everything we can to protect workers from the impact of work on health.

“Everyone has the right to expect a safe workplace and to be able to come home safely to their family at the end of every day.

“There is simply no need for engineered stone. It is a fashion product and there are safe alternatives on the market. Workers’ lives shouldn’t be traded off for a trendy kitchen,” said Wagstaff.

Job cuts will severely compromise ACC services

Source: Council of Trade Unions – CTU

The NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi is dismayed at the announcement that there will be 300 jobs cut at ACC.

“There is no doubt that such sweeping job cuts will severely compromise ACC’s ability to essential deliver services that New Zealanders rely on,” said NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff.

“These job losses will lead to less reliable services, undermining ACC’s ability to support people in need. It will now be much harder for people to access their entitlements and get the help they need to recover from injuries.

“It is deeply worrying that there are significant cuts to the Injury Prevention teams, which are focused on ensuring accidents and injuries don’t happen in the first place. Given that WorkSafe has also pulled back from injury prevention due to lack of funding, there will now be no agency leading on preventing workplace injuries.

“Working people deserve better than this. Everyone has the right to expect a safe workplace.

“The Government’s pursuit of tax cuts at whatever cost has directly led to the gutting of the public service, which will cause irreparable harm to New Zealanders who rely on timely and efficient services,” said Wagstaff.

Axing of Pay Equity Taskforce will entrench inequities for working women

Source: Council of Trade Unions – CTU

The NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi is deeply disappointed by confirmation of the Public Service Commission that the Pay Equity Taskforce will be disestablished.

“The disestablishment of the Pay Equity Taskforce will result in gender and ethnic pay disparities persisting as pay equity claims go unaddressed,” said NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff.

“It sends a message that the Government is washing its hands of responsibility for ensuring that working women aren’t being discriminated against in their pay. This will mean that government abandons its role as a leader on pay equity.

“Government has an obligation to ensure that all communities are free from discrimination, paid fairly and have good incomes. That means addressing pay equity claims as a matter of urgency.

“The Taskforce was already understaffed and claims already taking too long. This decision will greatly compound the problem and undermine the progress toward pay equity in the public sector.

“The Taskforce is still needed. There are numerous claims still unresolved, and all resolved claims still need to be reviewed regularly, which means there must be a continued role for government.

“Everyone deserves good work that pays well, and that means we must not tolerate anyone being paid less because they work in industries that have been historically undervalued by virtue of being female dominated,” said Wagstaff.

NZCTU condemns contractor reform as fundamental attack on workers’ rights

Source: Council of Trade Unions – CTU

NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi President Richard Wagstaff is condemning a proposed change to employment law as a deplorable attack on workers’ rights.

Minister for Workplace Relations, Brooke van Velden, has instructed her officials to begin work on preventing workers misclassified as contractors from challenging their employment status in the courts.

“The Minister is consulting on removing fundamental employee rights, such as a minimum wage, annual leave, rights to freedom of association and collective bargaining. That she even considers these changes worthy of consultation is deplorable,” said Wagstaff.

“If implemented, these changes represent the biggest attack on workers’ rights since the early 1990s and would open the floodgates to worker exploitation across Aotearoa New Zealand.

“Blocking workers from challenging their employment status in court will allow unscrupulous employers to circumvent employment law by hiring people as contractors, without fear of challenge.

“This could completely change the nature of employment. Workers in industries that currently seem safe from being engaged as contractors, would be at risk if these changes go through.

“The Minister wants to block vulnerable workers from even being able to have their case heard. This is not only unethical, but also legally unworkable.

“The NZCTU totally oppose any attempt by government to undermine access to justice for working people. Everyone, regardless of employment status, deserves good work – work that is well-paid, safe and secure and contributes to a meaningful and fulfilling life,” said Wagstaff.

Interislander grounding a warning for the future

Source: Council of Trade Unions – CTU

NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff says that the grounding of the Aratere is a warning about the current state of the Interislander service.

“New Zealand has now found itself lucky twice with the Interislander. In 2023, the Kaitaki lost all power with more than 800 passengers on board. Now the Aratere is grounded in Picton. The health and safety of passengers and crew demands a full investigation,” said Wagstaff.

“Our thoughts are with the crew and drivers currently being evacuated.

“These are aging ships that require more intensive repair and maintenance – as we discovered last year when the Kaiarahi service was canceled for days. It’s beyond time that they were replaced with safe and efficient ferries.

“$15bn of cargo is carried annually by the Interislander. It’s in everyone’s interest to make sure that the service is seaworthy.

 “The decision to cancel the replacement ferries should be urgently reviewed in light of the developments overnight. The replacement ships from Korea could have been here from next year. 

“This is a symbol of the direction of this Government. We can’t get power to Northland. A key ferry service is grounded. Yet investment by government in infrastructure will fall every year under the new Budget. The priorities of this Government are all wrong.

“We need an urgent and thorough investigation into this incident, which must include how we are going to deliver new ferries in a reasonable timeline. This grounding is warning that without further investment, lives and our economic security will be put at risk,” said Wagstaff.