Credibility of Nicola Willis on the line after new analysis confirms $2 billion tax plan hole

Source: Council of Trade Unions – CTU

The New Zealand Council of Trade Unions says it beggars belief that National Leader Christopher Luxon can retain confidence in his finance spokesperson Nicola Willis after the latest revelations about the size of the hole in its tax plan.

As reported on RNZ today, two respected economists, working with property experts CoreLogic, show National’s Foreign Buyer Tax would raise just $210m a year compared to National’s optimistic estimates of $740 million.

“This amounts to a staggering hole of more than $2 billion over the four-year forecast period,” said CTU President Richard Wagstaff.

“The CTU has said all along that National’s tax plan doesn’t add up and the weight of expert evidence continues to mount daily, confirming a huge headache for National – the credibility of finance spokesperson Nicola Willis is at stake here.

“We call on Christopher Luxon to express confidence in Ms Willis and explain how the Foreign Buyer Tax will work and release the reports which they are relying on instead of resorting to the sweeping and shallow defences he has made to date. He needs to front up and answer the hard questions journalists are asking every day.

“There is too much at stake here. If the numbers don’t add up as many now suspect, and a huge fiscal hole to the tune of billions of dollars opens up, a National-ACT government would have to take an even sharper axe to public services and slash and burn core services should it form the next government.

“Nicola Willis has said she wants to cut $600 million in public sector spending by Christmas. Clearly, the cuts would be more severe to make the tax plan work – they would need to more than double – and that means the public service would be incapacitated and unable to function effectively.

“National needs to come clean on what those cuts will mean for New Zealanders – without a doubt services New Zealanders need across health, education, justice, welfare, conservation, biosecurity, customs and much more are at risk.  

“Mr Luxon makes a lot of his corporate record – but no leader of a listed company would stand for this shambolic accounting.

“This election is all about earning the right to lead New Zealand. Right now, Mr Luxon is not doing enough to prove he’s got what it takes. He needs to front up with evidence and numbers that add up, or own up to the fact that his plan is not fit for purpose.”

PREFU data shows the strength of the underlying economy

Source: Council of Trade Unions – CTU

Treasury data released today shows a resilient economy, but one with long-term challenges that need to be addressed to make sure that New Zealanders benefit from future economic growth, said CTU Economist and Director of Policy Craig Renney. The Treasury forecasts show that government debt will continue to be low by international standards, and unemployment will continue to be lower than the long-run. Wages will continue to grow faster than inflation, with record migration driving house prices higher in the future.

Craig Renney said “While it is pleasing to see growth returning in the economy, we need to make sure that the benefits of that growth are being equally shared. That means making sure that the government is continuing to invest in essential public services. It means making sure that benefits and pensions rise in line with wages, rather than with inflation. Maintaining fiscal control is important, but it shouldn’t come at the cost of leaving the most vulnerable New Zealanders behind.

Renney said “Whoever is in government after the election will be faced with the same set of choices. The test is how they respond to them. Spending cuts and tax giveaways, or maintaining the public services that we all rely upon. Treasury data today shows that we should take heart from the resilience of the economy. What we choose to use that resilience for will determine the outcomes for New Zealanders”.

National Party Cuts – Front Line Services in the Firing Line

Source: Council of Trade Unions – CTU

The National Party has identified nearly $2.5bn of cuts to public services to pay for its tax programme, but an analysis by the CTU shows that this includes services many New Zealanders would consider front-line, says CTU Economist and Director of Policy Craig Renney. “National targets what it calls back office government bureaucracies. But the areas in scope of the cuts include courts, biosecurity, and cybersecurity. These aren’t back-office services”.

“Troublingly, the areas identified for cuts also include work on family violence and sexual violence. It includes serious fraud. It includes food safety. These are not areas that should be under the microscope for cuts. These should be areas where there is cross-party consensus that we need to invest more”.

National’s numbers come from Treasury data published at the last Budget. This has given the CTU the ability to identify what is within National’s savings programme. If we concentrate on the truly ‘non-front line’ the size of the cuts necessary to achieve National’s target rises nearly 5-fold – to 31% of spending. The reality is deeper and deeper cuts to public services, or no tax changes.

Craig Renney said “This analysis adds to the existing problems facing National’s tax plan. The cuts to public services will have to get even bigger if their overseas tax measures fail to bring in the $3.6bn necessary. National says that $2.3bn in tax cuts for landlords are necessary, but it hasn’t identified why possible cuts to front line services, such as search and rescue, are necessary”.

Craig Renney said “National should provide voters with clarity about how it will achieve such potentially deep cuts to public services. There are only a few weeks left until early voting opens, which only adds to the urgency. New Zealanders deserve to know how National will make its sums work, without cutting the essential services that are in their sights”.

Example areas within the scope of National’s savings programme:

Department Service Description
Crown Law The provision and supervision of a national Crown prosecution service and oversight of public prosecutions
DPMC Supporting activities that address cyber security threats and improving cyber security resilience
DPMC Leadership and co-ordination of the government’s response to the sequence of 2023 extreme weather events that impacted the North Island.
Minister for the Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence A whole-of-government approach to prevent, address and eliminate family violence and sexual violence, as well as related services and support to Ministers.
Serious Fraud Office Preventing, detecting, investigating and prosecuting serious financial crimes by the Serious Fraud Office.
Customs The provision of services relating to goods crossing borders, including trade compliance, and the protection of New Zealand through interventions, investigations and enforcement.
Ministry of Primary Industries Biosecurity monitoring and clearance programmes that manage the biosecurity risk associated with international trade and travel.
Ministry of Primary Industries Scientific inputs and development and implementation of food related standards (including as appropriate international and joint Australia/New Zealand standards) and standards related to inputs into food production, imports, exports, new and emerging issues and the domestic market.
Ministry of Transport The coordination of search and rescue activities as authorised by section 9(1) of Land Transport Management Act 2003.
Inland Revenue Inland Revenue undertaking investigation, audit and litigation activities
Ministry of Justice Providing services that support the work of the Supreme Court, Court of Appeal and High Court
Ministry of Social Development The processing and administrative aspects of payment of Veterans’ Pensions and related allowances
Department of Internal Affairs Providing effective management of New Zealand’s records of identity, authenticating official documents, and coordinating the congratulatory message service.

Donations open for ‘Luxon: Out of Touch’ campaign due to public demand

Source: Council of Trade Unions – CTU

The NZCTU has launched a fundraiser for those wanting to contribute to their election campaign. Since launching their campaign on Monday, the NZCTU has been inundated with support from members of the public who are concerned by what’s at stake this election.

“We’ve heard the requests from many corners asking for a way to contribute to the campaign to ensure as many people see it as possible” said President Richard Wagstaff. “We’ve been delighted by the positive reception to the ad – someone even framed the Herald cover page, they liked it so much!”

Every dollar raised by the fundraiser will go to promoting the video online to ensure as many people see it as possible. Donations can be made at 
https://www.together.org.nz/out_of_touch_too_much_risk_help_us_spread_the_word

“We’ve got real momentum here and we want to keep it going. We’re grateful to everyone who is helping out with donations and sharing posts online.”

“We know Christopher Luxon is out of touch and too much risk for New Zealand in a cost-of-living crisis, clearly a lot of New Zealanders agree with us.”

NZCTU launches election campaign: Christopher Luxon is out of touch, there is too much risk with National

Source: Council of Trade Unions – CTU

The New Zealand Council of Trade Unions has launched its 2023 election campaign focused on why a National-led government will leave working people worse off.

“Christopher Luxon and National will take New Zealand backwards and working people will be the first to feel the pain,” said NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff.

“The buck stops with Christopher Luxon. He’s the leader, these are his policies. People need to take notice of that.

“We are running a strong, evidence-based campaign which sets out why Christopher Luxon and National are out of touch with what matters to the lives of working people – and out of touch with the challenges New Zealand faces.

“It’s not just us. A Newshub poll in May found nearly half of New Zealanders thought he was out of touch.

“Anyone who thinks the answer is a $10 per week tax cut for someone on the minimum wage, and savage cuts to public services, has to be seriously out of touch.”

The NZCTU said the campaign would focus on the clear evidence of what National is promising:

  • Fair Pay Agreements would be abolished – these provide minimum protections for workers and prevent the race to the bottom, by cutting the wages of the most vulnerable workers.
  • 90-day trials for workers would be reinstated – there is no evidence these help businesses hire workers. In fact, it is the opposite, it will be easier to lay off workers for no reason.
  • Minimum wage rises would be restrained – National promises to raise the minimum wage every year, but we know National’s track record is poor. Under the current government minimum wages rises have increased the fortnightly income of those workers by $556 since 2017.
  • Tax breaks for landlords and speculators would make a comeback – these fuel the property market and simply enrich property investors, making it harder to buy a first home and pushing up rents.
  • Public transport costs for many low-paid workers would rise, along with prescription charges.
  • Welfare payments would be pegged to CPI inflation, meaning that many of the lowest-income New Zealanders will fall further behind.
  • The public service would be gutted – National would cut $8.5 billion of spending and savage frontline services up and down the country. Services working people depend on, and jobs that employ union members.
  • Climate Emergency Response Fund would be axed – $2.4 billion dollars committed to reducing our climate emissions to fund National’s landlord tax breaks. This will undermine New Zealand’s ability to tackle our climate crisis.

“National’s plan under Christopher Luxon is short-sighted, it is not good economic management,” said Wagstaff.

“October’s election is the most significant election for working people in a generation. It’s essential that going into this election, people understand what is at risk for not just working people, but all New Zealanders.”

Questionable assumptions, untested numbers in National’s tax plan

Source: Council of Trade Unions – CTU

The tax plan set out by National is propped up with questionable assumptions and untested numbers, say the New Zealand Council of Trade Unions.

NZCTU Economist Craig Renney said the plan has generated many more questions than it answers.

“According to their plan, they will generate $3 billion from foreign buyers, $716 million from foreign casino operators.

“There is no evidence that these numbers are possible, nor how they will be delivered. That is up to $3.6 billion that will need to be found from even deeper cuts to public services.

National also wants to cut spending on items such as free prescriptions, public transport support, and income support for those on the very lowest incomes.

This tax package cuts $2.3 billion of spending on tackling climate change – which protects jobs, incomes, and communities – and then gives $2.3 billion to landlords in tax advantages.

“This shows how out of touch National is on the issues that matter to New Zealanders,” said Renney.

According to IRD, 2.3 million New Zealanders earned less than $44,000 a year, meaning that they will be getting $2.15 a week from this package.

“That’s 56% of all income taxpayers. For them, this is not cost of living support it’s an insult. Meanwhile, those who own multiple homes will be in for billions of dollars of government support.

“There is nothing in this package that supports sustainable economic growth, helps to grow jobs, and there is a real risk that it will simply stoke further inflation and housing speculation.

 “We still haven’t seen Nationals plan for how it will fund schools and hospitals. How it will lift children out of poverty. How it will build additional housing for those in need.

“This tax package simply adds more questions on top. It’s not clear the numbers add up, and it’s not clear that National shares New Zealanders priorities.”

90-day trials – didn’t work then, won’t work now

Source: Council of Trade Unions – CTU

Unions across the country have slammed the National Party’s proposal to reintroduce 90-day trials, and say it would undermine fundamental workplace rights in New Zealand.

NZ Council of Trade Unions President Richard Wagstaff said 90-day trials were outdated, ineffective, and lazy policy.

“Getting ‘back on track’ as National puts it, clearly means a return to policies that are bad for working people.

“90-day trials are not a mechanism to make hiring workers easier. They only make it easier for businesses to fire them.” 

Trial periods have proven to be ineffective. Treasury funded research found no evidence that the ability to use trial periods significantly increased firms’ overall hiring.

Additionally, there was no evidence that the policy substantially increased short-term hiring.

The study did find that many employees faced increased uncertainty about their job security in the months after their hiring.

Unite National Secretary John Crocker said the policy would disproportionately impact workers that were young and on low incomes.

“This policy would disadvantage vulnerable workers, like young people or those just entering the workforce, while allowing bad employers to fire people with impunity.

“Workers can already be fired – but it has to be done fairly and reasonably. National’s proposal is to protect unfair and unreasonable employers from any consequences.”

E tū Director Sarah Thompson dismissed the policy as anti-evidence and anti-worker.

“During a cost-of-living crisis, workers and our families need better pay, conditions, and job security – things National seems dead set on eroding through talk of 90-day trials, and the repeal of Fair Pay Agreements.”

“This is a failed policy from the past that exists solely to seduce the National Party’s business donors,” said Dennis Maga, FIRST Union General Secretary. “This would make life worse in New Zealand for anyone who doesn’t already run a very large and exploitative business.”

Rising profits accounted for more than half of domestic inflation during cost-of-living crisis

Source: Council of Trade Unions – CTU

A new report released today by FIRST Union, NZ Council of Trade Unions and Action Station argues that rising profits – not wages – have been the primary driver of domestic inflation during the cost-of-living crisis.

“This report reveals that from mid-2021 to the end of 2022, rising profits contributed more than half of domestic inflationary pressure, while labour costs accounted for less than a third”, said FIRST Union Researcher and Policy Analyst Edward Miller.

“Many communities that are enduring rising prices while businesses post record profits have reached the same conclusion. They know that they are also on the receiving end of an inflation policy response that disproportionately impacts the poor and vulnerable”, said Miller.

Profit-led inflation in Aotearoa uses the same methodology as reports by the OECD, European Central Bank and the Australia Institute to decompose the profit and labour contributions to domestic inflationary pressure. Sector- and firm-level data provide further insight into how rising profits have fed into prices, looking at food, transport and housing.

“Over the past year, inflation has been the grand excuse for anyone to wield at their disposal. It provides cover for business owners to push up prices while withholding wage rises. It has been sharpened as a weapon for political gain by parties wanting to shrink government and the public sector. All of this has distracted us from the big businesses driving inflation,” said Kassie Hartendorp, Director of ActionStation.

“While our communities have been struggling from rising prices for the basics, big business has been shamelessly profiting off customers’ misery. This report shows that our largest corporations have been driving inflation at a time when people are struggling the most. We need policies that will address the root of the problem and ease the pressure for all of us,” said Kassie Hartendorp.

“These findings should open new discussions about the appropriate policy responses for reducing inflationary pressures. We need to tackle inflation in both the short and the long-run, and to make sure that the costs of our inflation response are falling on those who have benefitted the most over the past few years”, said CTU Policy Director Craig Renney.

“In the long-term, inflation reduction requires investment in those things that will make a consistent difference. We need to tackle rents, energy and transport costs, and to make sure that Kiwis have access to high quality public services. Doing this will not only reduce inflation, it will create the more productive and sustainable future”.

Action still required to eliminate the harm caused by engineered stone

Source: Council of Trade Unions – CTU

More needs to be done to protect people who work with engineered stone. Workers in these industries are being exposed to highly hazardous silica dust and fears remain for their health and safety.

This week NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff joined Kathryn Ryan on RNZ’s Nine to Noon to discuss the issue.  Also on the segment was Professor Lin Fritschi, a cancer epidemiologist specialising in occupational causes of cancer:


The issue

Engineered stone is a man-made artificial product that combines crystallised silica and other materials with resin. The silica dust created from cutting, drilling or grinding these materials is extremely hazardous.

Exposure to silica dust can cause silicosis (scarring of the lungs), lung cancer and auto-immune disease. These diseases are incurable and can be fatal.

Evidence from Australia demonstrates the damage caused by engineered stone. Workers in the industry are diagnosed with silicosis at a much higher rate than the general population with ‘1 in 3 workers tested in Queensland showing signs of silicosis’.

A 2021 Australian National Dust Disease Taskforce report found nearly one in four workers exposed to silica dust from engineered stone before 2018 have been diagnosed with silicosis.

Call to action

While silicosis and other diseases caused by silica dust exposure are incurable, they are preventable.

The NZCTU is working with a growing number of unions, academics, and health and safety professionals calling for a ban on engineered stone. Established health and safety principles tell us to eliminate risks whenever possible as a first option – this option is available.


It’s simple 101 health and safety if you don’t need to do it, then stop doing it”

— NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff


The growing evidence of the harm caused by exposure, and the fact that WorkSafe is having to up enforcement pressure on businesses to manage the risks properly, shows that a ban on all engineered stone products is necessary (with the only exemption for managing or removing engineered stone already in place).

Engineered stone benchtops are a cosmetic choice, and many safe alternatives exist. We can protect workers from life-altering illness by banning this material.

It is clear to us that a ban is only safe option.

Working for free for seven weeks – The Gender Pay Gap is not closing fast enough

Source: Council of Trade Unions – CTU

There has been disappointingly little progress in closing the gender pay gap in the last year despite continued low unemployment, wage growth, and strong labour demand says NZCTU Secretary Melissa Ansell-Bridges following the release of labour market data by Statistics NZ.

The overall gender pay gap has persisted across the past decade.

Last year, the NZCTU calculated that on average women started working effectively for free on 23 November 2022. This year the data shows that this has now closed slightly to 26 November.

NZCTU National Secretary Melissa Ansell-Bridges said, “Ten years ago women started working for free on 14 November. Despite all the huge strides we have made since then in terms of pay equality, we are still working 36 days a year for free. It underlines the need for more urgent effort from employers and the Government on this issue.”

When ethnicity is taken into consideration, the picture is even starker. The gap for Pasifika women means that in comparison to Pakeha men, they start working for free on 7 October. Māori women start working for free on 20 October. European women start working for free on 21 November. These dates show that women of all ethnicities are still facing discrimination in employment.

“With the mean gender wage gap now at 9.8%, the case for change could not be clearer. All employers should make sure that equal work is paid equally. We need greater pay transparency urgently. Last week’s announcement on pay reporting by the Government is a great start, but we need to go further and faster.

“These results show why the ethnic pay gap must also be reported on. We should also ban clauses in contracts preventing workers discussing their pay and require employers to include pay ranges in job adverts.

“This data underlines why Fair Pay Agreements are critical in New Zealand. They will provide transparency around basic pay for all workers and will ensure that women are not treated unfairly.

“Fair Pay Agreements will help reduce pay gaps and will highlight inequities in workplace pay. Not only are they good for women, but they are also good for all New Zealand workers.”  

Work for free day – women
All Women European Women Māori Women Pacific Peoples Women Asian Women Māori Women
Compared to all men Sun, 26 Nov 2023 Wed, 06 Dec 2023 Fri, 03 Nov 2023 Sat, 21 Oct 2023 Mon, 13 Nov 2023 Tue, 31 Oct 2023
Compared to European men Sat, 11 Nov 2023 Tue, 21 Nov 2023 Fri, 20 Oct 2023 Sat, 07 Oct 2023 Mon, 30 Oct 2023 Wed, 18 Oct 2023